Variable Chaser // Arc of Fortune
Rare · Creature — Human Wizard // Sorcery
6.2PlayableRank 99 of 280
57.4%Rank 75 of 271 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 56.2%
How are these measures computed?
Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.
Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).
Good playable that always makes the cut (6.2/10).
Why. A three-mana 2/3 with flying and prowess that enters prepared. It is already a good creature; Arc of Fortune lets each player discard their hand and draw seven cards.
Risks. Arc of Fortune is symmetric and also helps the opponent. The body stays small.
In the draft. A decent blue card, to take in any blue deck with noncreature spells.
Win rate of the card
Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.
Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : +4.4 win-rate points
Its place in the set
- Rare: rank 47 of 64
- Blue: rank 12 of 39
- Cost 3: rank 24 of 73
- Average pick: 3.0 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)
Win rate by colour pair
Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.
Win rate: strong players and all players
Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.
Win rate on the play and on the draw
Win rate by number of copies in the deck
- 1 copy56.4 % · 12,395 games
- 2 copies52.0 % · 333 games
Win rate alongside other cards
Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.
Cards it wins more with
- Artifist Acumen391 games · 55.8 % (instead of 51.9% expected)
- Samut, Tyrant of Naktamun336 games · 53.6 % (instead of 50.1% expected)
- Kiora of Salt and Sand641 games · 57.6 % (instead of 54.3% expected)
- Way of the Wildspeaker652 games · 58.0 % (instead of 54.7% expected)
Cards it wins less with
- Chandra, Chill of Compliance547 games · 52.8 % (instead of 58.2% expected)
- Rescue Girl, First Responder706 games · 51.1 % (instead of 54.4% expected)
- Archive Arbiter949 games · 53.2 % (instead of 56.1% expected)
Other cards of the same cost and colours
8. Lyra, Tolarian Archangel
8.7
15. Chandra, Chill of Compliance
8.2
16. Seasoned Cryomancer
8.1
50. Vraska, Soul of Stone
7.0
Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.