Ral Zarek, Guest Lecturer
Mythic · Legendary Planeswalker — Ral
6.6GoodRank 66 of 266
54.6%Rank 202 of 319 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 56.3%
How are these measures computed?
Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.
Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).
It wins less than its rating suggests.
Why this gap?
The pick rating is a prior: it is for choosing a card before there are results. The observed strength comes from real games, and the win rate of a card is stable from one week to the next. The gap often comes from a card that is easy to replace at the pick but very efficient once played, from a good archetype that carries it, or from a flaw of our rating: in a set that already has many games, the results are more reliable than the rating.
A very good mythic of the format (6.6/10).
Why. A three-mana planeswalker that improves your draws with Surveil 2, makes players discard, or returns a creature with mana value 3 or less from your graveyard. It gives value from the first turn and the opponent must attack it.
Risks. It does not protect itself or your board, and does nothing against a real army. Its ultimate takes many turns to reach.
In the draft. A mid-pack pick for black, especially with cheap creatures in your graveyard. Do not take it over a removal.
Win rate of the card
Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.
Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : +2.1 win-rate points
Its place in the set
- Mythic: rank 14 of 20
- Black: rank 10 of 34
- Cost 3: rank 18 of 66
- Average pick: 1.7 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)
Win rate by colour pair
Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.
splash
Win rate: strong players and all players
Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.
Win rate on the play and on the draw
Win rate by number of copies in the deck
- 1 copy53.5 % · 8,940 games
- 2 copies50.0 % · 100 games
Win rate since the set came out (card in hand)
- First two weeks54.5 % · 2,164 games
- Next two weeks53.9 % · 1,077 games
- After that53.0 % · 568 games
Win rate alongside other cards
Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.
Cards it wins more with
- Rapier Wit1,004 games · 56.5 % (instead of 53.4% expected)
- Practiced Offense540 games · 60.6 % (instead of 57.7% expected)
- Slumbering Trudge507 games · 57.0 % (instead of 54.1% expected)
- Moment of Reckoning827 games · 59.1 % (instead of 56.6% expected)
Cards it wins less with
- Embrace the Paradox514 games · 46.5 % (instead of 52.0% expected)
Other cards of the same cost and colours
18. Moseo, Vein's New Dean
7.9
19. Blech, Loafing Pest
7.8
52. Cauldron of Essence
6.8
59. Withering Curse
6.6
Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.