Lightning Strike
Common · Instant
6.0PlayableRank 101 of 271
54.8%Rank 155 of 273 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 55.7%
How are these measures computed?
Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.
Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).
Good playable that always makes the cut (6.0/10).
Why. The simplest red removal: three damage to any target for two mana, at instant speed. It kills most early creatures, or finishes an opponent when the game speeds up.
Risks. Three damage won't handle big Vehicles or high-toughness creatures. It only answers a mid-sized threat.
In the draft. A solid pick in red, not a top priority: take it after the best threats. Every red deck wants several copies.
Win rate of the card
Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.
Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : +0.9 win-rate points
Its place in the set
- Common: rank 6 of 91
- Red: rank 11 of 38
- Cost 2: rank 27 of 64
- Average pick: 4.4 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)
Win rate by colour pair
Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.
Win rate: strong players and all players
Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.
Win rate on the play and on the draw
Win rate by number of copies in the deck
- 1 copy54.1 % · 103,690 games
- 2 copies54.3 % · 36,510 games
- 3 copies54.8 % · 7,552 games
- 4 copies or more56.5 % · 1,376 games
Win rate since the set came out (card in hand)
- First two weeks55.1 % · 49,510 games
- Next two weeks54.8 % · 19,700 games
- After that54.7 % · 7,333 games
Win rate alongside other cards
Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.
Cards it wins more with
- Bloodghast2,045 games · 54.1 % (instead of 51.2% expected)
- The Last Ride1,649 games · 55.3 % (instead of 52.5% expected)
- Monument to Endurance7,853 games · 52.1 % (instead of 49.7% expected)
- Streaking Oilgorger14,691 games · 55.2 % (instead of 53.0% expected)
Cards it wins less with
- Spectacular Pileup2,757 games · 49.1 % (instead of 53.5% expected)
- Lagorin, Soul of Alacria2,821 games · 50.2 % (instead of 54.5% expected)
- Debris Beetle2,352 games · 52.5 % (instead of 56.5% expected)
Where it is played
B/R · 62 %R/W · 62 %
Played in 18% of the decks of the set
Other cards of the same cost and colours
10. Draconautics Engineer
8.5
26. Hazoret, Godseeker
7.5
28. Gastal Thrillseeker
7.4
58. Redshift, Rocketeer Chief
6.8
Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.