Draconic Visitor
Rare · Creature — Dragon
7.5Very goodRank 28 of 280
53.6%Rank 182 of 271 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 56.2%
How are these measures computed?
Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.
Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).
It wins less than its rating suggests.
Why this gap?
The pick rating is a prior: it is for choosing a card before there are results. The observed strength comes from real games, and the win rate of a card is stable from one week to the next. The gap often comes from a card that is easy to replace at the pick but very efficient once played, from a good archetype that carries it, or from a flaw of our rating: in a set that already has many games, the results are more reliable than the rating.
A very good rare of the format (7.5/10).
Why. A five mana 5/5 flyer: a good body by itself. If you create artifact tokens, you get 5/5 red Dragon creature tokens with flying instead, a huge effect in a deck built for it.
Risks. Without artifact tokens the effect does nothing: it is a five mana 5/5 flyer, a good body and no more. It needs two red mana.
In the draft. Take it as a finisher for a red deck, higher if you have artifact token makers.
Win rate of the card
Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.
Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : +2.4 win-rate points
Its place in the set
- Rare: rank 10 of 64
- Red: rank 6 of 40
- Cost 5: rank 3 of 23
- Average pick: 2.0 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)
Win rate by colour pair
Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.
Win rate: strong players and all players
Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.
Win rate on the play and on the draw
Win rate by number of copies in the deck
- 1 copy53.4 % · 10,134 games
- 2 copies49.9 % · 359 games
Win rate alongside other cards
Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.
Cards it wins more with
- Aerid Konstrari527 games · 61.9 % (instead of 56.8% expected)
- Tenured Tethermage1,079 games · 58.5 % (instead of 53.7% expected)
- Chandra, Torch of Defiance395 games · 59.7 % (instead of 55.1% expected)
- Something Worth Saving1,319 games · 58.6 % (instead of 54.3% expected)
Cards it wins less with
- Surveillance Phantasm1,006 games · 49.4 % (instead of 54.5% expected)
- Arni, Humble Scribe659 games · 48.9 % (instead of 52.8% expected)
- Theoretical Necromancer569 games · 50.1 % (instead of 53.9% expected)
Other cards of the same cost and colours
204. Winter, Team Player
4.8
205. Awaken the Inferno
4.8
228. Jiang Yanggu, Alone
4.3
237. Tether Technician
4.2
Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.