Aerid Konstrari

Mythic · Legendary Creature — Elder Sphinx

Pick rating

8.4BombRank 12 of 280

Observed strength

64.6%Rank 8 of 271 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 56.2%

How are these measures computed?

Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.

Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).

One of the very best mythics of the format (8.4/10).

Why. A four mana 5/4 flyer that makes a Heartwood token when it enters and another when it dies, so it replaces itself if killed. The Heartwood is an artifact that taps for red or green mana.

Risks. It needs a red mana and two green mana. Its six mana activation is slow, although it can end a game.

In the draft. A very good pick in red-green. Removal on it still leaves a useful artifact behind.

Win rate of the card

Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.

Card in hand at some point in the game64.6 %(set average : 56.2 %)
Card in the opening hand65.0 %(set average : 54.8 %)
Card drawn during the game64.4 %(set average : 57.0 %)

Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : +13.3 win-rate points

Its place in the set

  • Mythic: rank 10 of 26
  • Multicolour: rank 5 of 54
  • Cost 4: rank 4 of 37
  • Average pick: 1.7 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)

Win rate by colour pair

Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.

3,234 games59.7 %(all pairs : 58.9 %)
758 games62.8 %(all pairs : 58.9 %)
753 games59.1 %(all pairs : 58.9 %)

splash

613 games55.3 %(all pairs : 58.9 %)

splash

612 games63.7 %(all pairs : 58.9 %)
491 games56.2 %(all pairs : 58.9 %)
362 games54.4 %(all pairs : 58.9 %)

splash

159 games49.1 %(all pairs : 58.9 %)

splash

Win rate: strong players and all players

Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.

Strong players (diamond and mythic ranks), card in hand61.4 %· 415 games
All players, card in hand64.6 %· 3,446 games

Win rate on the play and on the draw

Games on the play (the deck holds the card)62.0 %(set average : 57.7 %)
Games on the draw, so drawing from the first turn (the deck holds the card)55.8 %(set average : 53.1 %)

Win rate alongside other cards

Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.

Cards it wins more with

Cards it wins less with

Other cards of the same cost and colours

  • Chandra, Torch of Defiance

    1. Chandra, Torch of Defiance

    9.4
  • Curse-Marred Demon

    27. Curse-Marred Demon

    7.5
  • Bloombrute

    63. Bloombrute

    6.6
  • Warrior's Blades

    72. Warrior's Blades

    6.6

Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.