Theoretical Necromancer

Common · Creature — Vampire Warlock

Pick rating

4.8WeakRank 202 of 280

Observed strength

55.4%Rank 136 of 271 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 56.2%

How are these measures computed?

Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.

Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).

It wins more than its rating suggests.

Why this gap?

The pick rating is a prior: it is for choosing a card before there are results. The observed strength comes from real games, and the win rate of a card is stable from one week to the next. The gap often comes from a card that is easy to replace at the pick but very efficient once played, from a good archetype that carries it, or from a flaw of our rating: in a set that already has many games, the results are more reliable than the rating.

A solid playable that rarely gets cut (4.8/10).

Why. A 4/1 for three mana that hits hard early. Once it's in the graveyard it can exile itself for four mana to return another creature card, a useful second life late in the game.

Risks. One toughness means it trades with anything and dies to any ping. It does almost nothing on defense.

In the draft. Reasonable filler in a black deck with good creatures to get back. Mid to late pick.

Win rate of the card

Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.

Card in hand at some point in the game55.4 %(set average : 56.2 %)
Card in the opening hand54.2 %(set average : 54.8 %)
Card drawn during the game56.1 %(set average : 57.0 %)

Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : -0.2 win-rate points

Its place in the set

  • Common: rank 36 of 81
  • Black: rank 31 of 39
  • Cost 3: rank 51 of 73
  • Average pick: 9.1 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)

Win rate by colour pair

Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.

19,181 games56.5 %(all pairs : 56.0 %)
9,848 games56.6 %(all pairs : 56.0 %)
4,854 games53.3 %(all pairs : 56.0 %)
4,009 games57.4 %(all pairs : 56.0 %)
3,881 games53.9 %(all pairs : 56.0 %)
2,058 games58.7 %(all pairs : 56.0 %)
1,671 games54.6 %(all pairs : 56.0 %)
1,371 games55.3 %(all pairs : 56.0 %)

Win rate: strong players and all players

Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.

Strong players (diamond and mythic ranks), card in hand57.2 %· 3,666 games
All players, card in hand55.7 %· 25,096 games

Win rate on the play and on the draw

Games on the play (the deck holds the card)58.0 %(set average : 57.7 %)
Games on the draw, so drawing from the first turn (the deck holds the card)54.0 %(set average : 53.1 %)

Win rate by number of copies in the deck

  • 1 copy55.8 % · 38,147 games
  • 2 copies56.9 % · 9,754 games
  • 3 copies52.7 % · 1,019 games

Win rate alongside other cards

Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.

Cards it wins more with

Cards it wins less with

Other cards of the same cost and colours

  • Ingris Stingerquill

    4. Ingris Stingerquill

    9.0
  • Vraska, the Cutting Glare

    22. Vraska, the Cutting Glare

    7.7
  • Vindictive Triumph

    34. Vindictive Triumph

    7.4
  • Gideon the Oathless

    58. Gideon the Oathless

    6.8

Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.