Extended Absence
Common · Instant
4.9WeakRank 192 of 280
59.6%Rank 35 of 271 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 56.2%
How are these measures computed?
Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.
Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).
It wins more than its rating suggests.
Why this gap?
The pick rating is a prior: it is for choosing a card before there are results. The observed strength comes from real games, and the win rate of a card is stable from one week to the next. The gap often comes from a card that is easy to replace at the pick but very efficient once played, from a good archetype that carries it, or from a flaw of our rating: in a set that already has many games, the results are more reliable than the rating.
A solid playable that rarely gets cut (4.9/10).
Why. A four-mana instant that exiles a creature or planeswalker, deals 1 damage to each opponent, and gains you 1 life. It is unconditional removal at instant speed that answers nearly every threat, including ones that would come back from the graveyard.
Risks. Four mana is a high cost for removal, and it cannot hit other permanents. You have to hold up mana to get the most from it.
In the draft. A good mid-pack pick for any black deck, especially blue-black. Take it over most average creatures.
Win rate of the card
Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.
Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : +6.3 win-rate points
Its place in the set
- Common: rank 32 of 81
- Black: rank 27 of 39
- Cost 4: rank 25 of 37
- Average pick: 3.9 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)
Win rate by colour pair
Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.
Win rate: strong players and all players
Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.
Win rate on the play and on the draw
Win rate by number of copies in the deck
- 1 copy56.4 % · 54,550 games
- 2 copies57.0 % · 19,349 games
- 3 copies59.7 % · 3,354 games
- 4 copies or more60.2 % · 520 games
Win rate alongside other cards
Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.
Cards it wins more with
- Tethermage's Advantage480 games · 57.3 % (instead of 54.0% expected)
- Emrakul, the Exigent Doom768 games · 57.3 % (instead of 54.2% expected)
- Refute Destiny230 games · 56.1 % (instead of 53.0% expected)
- Command the Stage3,172 games · 56.0 % (instead of 53.3% expected)
Cards it wins less with
- Artifist Acumen651 games · 47.3 % (instead of 52.3% expected)
- Warrior's Blades1,087 games · 50.8 % (instead of 55.4% expected)
- Kwia Vigorbloom693 games · 53.4 % (instead of 58.0% expected)
Other cards of the same cost and colours
37. Darklight Phoenix
7.2
44. Null Summoner
7.0
108. Recursive Recruitment
6.0
198. Rewrite Regrets
4.8
Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.