Rewrite Regrets

Uncommon · Sorcery

Pick rating

4.8WeakRank 198 of 280

Observed strength

59.3%Rank 40 of 271 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 56.2%

How are these measures computed?

Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.

Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).

It wins more than its rating suggests.

Why this gap?

The pick rating is a prior: it is for choosing a card before there are results. The observed strength comes from real games, and the win rate of a card is stable from one week to the next. The gap often comes from a card that is easy to replace at the pick but very efficient once played, from a good archetype that carries it, or from a flaw of our rating: in a set that already has many games, the results are more reliable than the rating.

A solid playable that rarely gets cut (4.8/10).

Why. A four-mana sorcery that returns a creature or planeswalker card with mana value 6 or less from your graveyard to the battlefield, then does Empower Jace 2. You get your best dead card back plus a small planeswalker, a big card advantage swing.

Risks. It needs a graveyard target: early in the game it does nothing. It is only strong once you have lost a valuable creature, and it does not answer an opposing threat.

In the draft. A mid-pack pick, best in a black deck with strong top-end creatures, especially blue-black or black-green. Bad in a deck of small, plain creatures.

Win rate of the card

Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.

Card in hand at some point in the game59.3 %(set average : 56.2 %)
Card in the opening hand55.3 %(set average : 54.8 %)
Card drawn during the game61.4 %(set average : 57.0 %)

Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : +6.0 win-rate points

Its place in the set

  • Uncommon: rank 91 of 109
  • Black: rank 29 of 39
  • Cost 4: rank 26 of 37
  • Average pick: 4.7 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)

Win rate by colour pair

Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.

13,207 games57.2 %(all pairs : 56.6 %)
7,312 games57.3 %(all pairs : 56.6 %)
3,434 games57.7 %(all pairs : 56.6 %)
3,323 games54.7 %(all pairs : 56.6 %)
2,330 games54.2 %(all pairs : 56.6 %)
2,188 games58.9 %(all pairs : 56.6 %)
1,587 games54.1 %(all pairs : 56.6 %)
1,412 games55.0 %(all pairs : 56.6 %)

Win rate: strong players and all players

Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.

Strong players (diamond and mythic ranks), card in hand59.7 %· 2,837 games
All players, card in hand59.3 %· 19,927 games

Win rate on the play and on the draw

Games on the play (the deck holds the card)58.3 %(set average : 57.7 %)
Games on the draw, so drawing from the first turn (the deck holds the card)55.0 %(set average : 53.1 %)

Win rate by number of copies in the deck

  • 1 copy56.2 % · 33,329 games
  • 2 copies59.0 % · 4,904 games
  • 3 copies59.7 % · 437 games

Win rate alongside other cards

Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.

Cards it wins more with

Cards it wins less with

Other cards of the same cost and colours

  • Darklight Phoenix

    37. Darklight Phoenix

    7.2
  • Null Summoner

    44. Null Summoner

    7.0
  • Recursive Recruitment

    108. Recursive Recruitment

    6.0
  • Extended Absence

    192. Extended Absence

    4.9

Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.