Guiding Hydra
Rare · Creature — Hydra Horror
8.6BombRank 10 of 280
57.6%Rank 65 of 271 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 56.2%
How are these measures computed?
Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.
Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).
It wins less than its rating suggests.
Why this gap?
The pick rating is a prior: it is for choosing a card before there are results. The observed strength comes from real games, and the win rate of a card is stable from one week to the next. The gap often comes from a card that is easy to replace at the pick but very efficient once played, from a good archetype that carries it, or from a flaw of our rating: in a set that already has many games, the results are more reliable than the rating.
One of the 10 best cards of the set (8.6/10).
Why. A flexible creature: you choose X to fit the turn. It enters with X counters and, at the start of your combat, can remove one to put a counter on each of your other creatures. It is a team card more than a lone threat.
Risks. Alone it is a small creature: with X equal to one, a 2/1. If it runs out of counters it dies. It is only good if you have other creatures.
In the draft. A high pick for a white deck with many creatures: it fits at every point of the curve.
Win rate of the card
Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.
Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : +4.9 win-rate points
Its place in the set
- Rare: rank 2 of 64
- White: rank 1 of 39
- Cost 1: rank 1 of 22
- Average pick: 1.6 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)
Win rate by colour pair
Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.
splash
splash
Win rate: strong players and all players
Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.
Win rate on the play and on the draw
Win rate by number of copies in the deck
- 1 copy55.7 % · 13,549 games
- 2 copies57.8 % · 367 games
Win rate alongside other cards
Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.
Cards it wins more with
- Charge the Sanctum662 games · 54.7 % (instead of 51.1% expected)
- Enlightened Confidant457 games · 59.1 % (instead of 55.8% expected)
- Kwia Vigorbloom461 games · 60.3 % (instead of 57.0% expected)
- Edgar, Ancient Bloodlord813 games · 56.1 % (instead of 53.1% expected)
Cards it wins less with
- Formidable Commons969 games · 51.9 % (instead of 56.5% expected)
- Recursive Recruitment925 games · 54.2 % (instead of 58.4% expected)
- Sphinx's Approach698 games · 52.0 % (instead of 55.9% expected)
Other cards of the same cost and colours
21. Liliana the Faultless
7.8
180. Emergency Phytomedic // Seed Suture
5.0
212. Blessed Ghoul
4.6
267. Loyal Tutor
2.0
Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.