Jace's Machinations
Rare · Instant
6.6GoodRank 67 of 280
57.8%Rank 61 of 271 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 56.2%
How are these measures computed?
Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.
Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).
A very good rare of the format (6.6/10).
Why. A three-mana instant: until end of turn, you can activate the loyalty abilities of your Jace planeswalkers at instant speed, even on the opponent's turn. It also applies Empower Jace 8: enough to draw and surveil, at one activation per turn.
Risks. The Jace token is exposed to attacks, and the value is spread over several turns. It does not change the board right away.
In the draft. A good value spell for a blue deck that can protect its Jace. Take it fairly high in a control deck.
Win rate of the card
Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.
Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : +5.1 win-rate points
Its place in the set
- Rare: rank 38 of 64
- Blue: rank 8 of 39
- Cost 3: rank 15 of 73
- Average pick: 2.5 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)
Win rate by colour pair
Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.
Win rate: strong players and all players
Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.
Win rate on the play and on the draw
Win rate by number of copies in the deck
- 1 copy56.1 % · 14,525 games
- 2 copies56.7 % · 397 games
Win rate alongside other cards
Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.
Cards it wins more with
- Way of the Necromancer177 games · 54.8 % (instead of 48.8% expected)
- The Theorist, Jace Beleren573 games · 66.7 % (instead of 61.7% expected)
- Meticulous Commons1,270 games · 60.1 % (instead of 55.6% expected)
- Rise of the Deathbringer680 games · 59.3 % (instead of 55.4% expected)
Cards it wins less with
- Avatar of Burgeoning Echoes504 games · 52.0 % (instead of 57.2% expected)
- Loot, the Anomaly202 games · 47.0 % (instead of 51.2% expected)
Other cards of the same cost and colours
8. Lyra, Tolarian Archangel
8.7
15. Chandra, Chill of Compliance
8.2
16. Seasoned Cryomancer
8.1
50. Vraska, Soul of Stone
7.0
Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.