The Theorist, Jace Beleren
Mythic · Legendary Planeswalker — Jace
9.3BombRank 2 of 280
68.7%Rank 3 of 271 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 56.2%
How are these measures computed?
Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.
Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).
One of the 3 best cards of the set (9.3/10).
Why. It draws you an extra card every opponent's turn without doing anything, and the +1 makes a 1/1 creature token to protect it. The minus two bounces an opposing creature or artifact, a useful tempo play on top of the card advantage.
Risks. Against wide or flying attackers, 1/1 tokens cannot keep it alive. The two blue mana in the cost are demanding.
In the draft. Excellent in blue, take it very early. It wants a deck that blocks well so the extra cards actually matter.
Win rate of the card
Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.
Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : +17.4 win-rate points
Its place in the set
- Mythic: rank 2 of 26
- Blue: rank 1 of 39
- Cost 4: rank 2 of 37
- Average pick: 1.2 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)
Win rate by colour pair
Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.
Win rate: strong players and all players
Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.
Win rate on the play and on the draw
Win rate alongside other cards
Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.
Cards it wins more with
- Vraska, Soul of Stone276 games · 65.9 % (instead of 58.0% expected)
- Jace's Machinations573 games · 66.7 % (instead of 61.7% expected)
- Rescue Girl, First Responder570 games · 62.3 % (instead of 59.0% expected)
- Shipwreck Marsh618 games · 66.2 % (instead of 62.8% expected)
Cards it wins less with
- Sureshot Sower628 games · 54.5 % (instead of 60.2% expected)
- Bestial Incursion821 games · 55.9 % (instead of 61.1% expected)
- Konstrari Improviser // Soul Tether807 games · 55.8 % (instead of 60.2% expected)
Other cards of the same cost and colours
3. Denzilore Fatehold
9.1
32. Sphinx of False Conclusions
7.4
44. Null Summoner
7.0
65. Desperate Futurescribe
6.6
Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.