Sphinx of False Conclusions
Rare · Creature — Sphinx Illusion
7.4Very goodRank 32 of 280
64.2%Rank 10 of 271 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 56.2%
How are these measures computed?
Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.
Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).
A very good rare of the format (7.4/10).
Why. A 4/2 with flash and flying: it ambushes an attacker or arrives at end of turn. Each attack lets it loot, and if it dies, a token copy stays. It is hard to remove for good.
Risks. With 2 toughness it falls in combat. The copy is a token: if it dies in turn, it does not replace itself.
In the draft. A very good pick in blue. Take it high: it is a quality threat and blocker.
Win rate of the card
Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.
Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : +10.7 win-rate points
Its place in the set
- Rare: rank 14 of 64
- Blue: rank 6 of 39
- Cost 4: rank 6 of 37
- Average pick: 1.6 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)
Win rate by colour pair
Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.
Win rate: strong players and all players
Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.
Win rate on the play and on the draw
Win rate by number of copies in the deck
- 1 copy59.9 % · 17,454 games
- 2 copies62.4 % · 487 games
Win rate alongside other cards
Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.
Cards it wins more with
- Academic Ascent513 games · 63.7 % (instead of 57.8% expected)
- Frostbite Pyromental362 games · 59.9 % (instead of 56.8% expected)
- Hall of Echoes379 games · 60.2 % (instead of 58.2% expected)
- Prophesied End1,413 games · 61.3 % (instead of 59.5% expected)
Cards it wins less with
- Samut, Tyrant of Naktamun291 games · 45.0 % (instead of 53.7% expected)
- Overwrite the Multiverse455 games · 58.9 % (instead of 63.8% expected)
Other cards of the same cost and colours
2. The Theorist, Jace Beleren
9.3
3. Denzilore Fatehold
9.1
44. Null Summoner
7.0
65. Desperate Futurescribe
6.6
Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.