Group Project

Uncommon · Sorcery

Pick rating

6.4GoodRank 74 of 266

Observed strength

56.7%Rank 118 of 319 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 56.3%

How are these measures computed?

Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.

Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).

Good playable that always makes the cut (6.4/10).

Why. Two mana for a 2/2 Spirit creature token, then a second one later by tapping three untapped creatures. Two bodies from a single card, and the flashback costs no mana.

Risks. The flashback needs three untapped creatures, so an established board, and they can't attack that turn. Alone, the first token is just an ordinary 2/2.

In the draft. A good card for white decks with lots of small creatures. Take it over mediocre creatures; it shines in red-white or white-black.

Win rate of the card

Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.

Card in hand at some point in the game56.7 %(set average : 56.3 %)
Card in the opening hand57.7 %(set average : 54.9 %)
Card drawn during the game56.0 %(set average : 57.2 %)

Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : -0.6 win-rate points

How often it ends up in the deck once drafted by a strong player (not a win rate)83.0 %(set average : 63.0 %)

Its place in the set

  • Uncommon: rank 19 of 100
  • White: rank 9 of 32
  • Cost 2: rank 17 of 69
  • Average pick: 5.4 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)

Win rate by colour pair

Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.

37,181 games58.5 %(all pairs : 57.7 %)
15,796 games57.7 %(all pairs : 57.7 %)
1,889 games48.5 %(all pairs : 57.7 %)
1,136 games51.2 %(all pairs : 57.7 %)
383 games49.6 %(all pairs : 57.7 %)

Win rate: strong players and all players

Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.

Strong players (diamond and mythic ranks), card in hand56.8 %· 6,840 games
All players, card in hand57.4 %· 27,160 games

Win rate on the play and on the draw

Games on the play (the deck holds the card)60.3 %(set average : 58.0 %)
Games on the draw, so drawing from the first turn (the deck holds the card)55.1 %(set average : 52.8 %)

Win rate by number of copies in the deck

  • 1 copy57.5 % · 47,128 games
  • 2 copies58.2 % · 8,681 games
  • 3 copies60.8 % · 946 games
  • 4 copies or more62.7 % · 110 games

Win rate since the set came out (card in hand)

  • First two weeks58.0 % · 15,436 games
  • Next two weeks56.8 % · 7,405 games
  • After that56.5 % · 4,319 games

Win rate alongside other cards

Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.

Cards it wins more with

Cards it wins less with

Where it is played

R/W · 38 %

Played in 9.8% of the decks of the set

Other cards of the same cost and colours

  • Hardened Academic

    9. Hardened Academic

    8.6
  • Informed Inkwright

    11. Informed Inkwright

    8.4
  • Silverquill Charm

    30. Silverquill Charm

    7.4
  • Molten Note

    34. Molten Note

    7.3

Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.