Molten Note

Uncommon · Sorcery

Pick rating

7.3Very goodRank 34 of 266

Observed strength

59.4%Rank 37 of 319 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 56.3%

How are these measures computed?

Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.

Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).

A solid uncommon of the format (7.3/10).

Why. An X red-white sorcery that deals damage to a creature equal to the mana spent, then untaps all your creatures. Its eight-mana flashback gives you a second use late in the game.

Risks. It needs both colours, and killing a big creature costs as much mana as its toughness. You can only cast it on your own turn, in a main phase.

In the draft. A good uncommon for red-white, taken at a middling to high pick. Outside that pair it is unplayable.

Win rate of the card

Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.

Card in hand at some point in the game59.4 %(set average : 56.3 %)
Card in the opening hand56.9 %(set average : 54.9 %)
Card drawn during the game60.8 %(set average : 57.2 %)

Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : +4.0 win-rate points

How often it ends up in the deck once drafted by a strong player (not a win rate)86.0 %(set average : 63.0 %)

Its place in the set

  • Uncommon: rank 5 of 100
  • Multicolour: rank 12 of 77
  • Cost 2: rank 10 of 69
  • Average pick: 4.6 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)

Win rate by colour pair

Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.

44,468 games59.0 %(all pairs : 57.7 %)
7,284 games55.8 %(all pairs : 57.7 %)
6,878 games56.6 %(all pairs : 57.7 %)

splash

2,932 games52.0 %(all pairs : 57.7 %)
2,757 games57.2 %(all pairs : 57.7 %)

splash

1,197 games55.3 %(all pairs : 57.7 %)
824 games49.9 %(all pairs : 57.7 %)

splash

410 games56.1 %(all pairs : 57.7 %)

splash

Win rate: strong players and all players

Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.

Strong players (diamond and mythic ranks), card in hand59.2 %· 8,815 games
All players, card in hand60.1 %· 34,173 games

Win rate on the play and on the draw

Games on the play (the deck holds the card)59.9 %(set average : 58.0 %)
Games on the draw, so drawing from the first turn (the deck holds the card)55.6 %(set average : 52.8 %)

Win rate by number of copies in the deck

  • 1 copy57.3 % · 57,074 games
  • 2 copies59.5 % · 10,404 games
  • 3 copies60.2 % · 1,181 games

Win rate since the set came out (card in hand)

  • First two weeks60.8 % · 18,186 games
  • Next two weeks59.8 % · 10,073 games
  • After that58.6 % · 5,914 games

Win rate alongside other cards

Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.

Cards it wins more with

Where it is played

R/W · 45 %

Played in 12% of the decks of the set

Other cards of the same cost and colours

  • Hardened Academic

    9. Hardened Academic

    8.6
  • Informed Inkwright

    11. Informed Inkwright

    8.4
  • Traumatic Critique

    21. Traumatic Critique

    7.7
  • Molten-Core Maestro

    26. Molten-Core Maestro

    7.5

Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.