Wild Hypothesis
Common · Sorcery
4.6WeakRank 205 of 266
52.2%Rank 262 of 319 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 56.3%
How are these measures computed?
Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.
Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).
A solid playable that rarely gets cut (4.6/10).
Why. A flexible spell: for X mana plus a green mana you create a Fractal creature token with X +1/+1 counters, then surveil 2. It scales with your curve.
Risks. It is a sorcery, so the token arrives slowly, and a small X gives a weak body. It is no substitute for real removal.
In the draft. A green playable, best in green-blue, to round out a deck. Not a card to take early.
Win rate of the card
Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.
Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : +2.7 win-rate points
Its place in the set
- Common: rank 55 of 86
- Green: rank 22 of 32
- Cost 1: rank 23 of 26
- Average pick: 10.6 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)
Win rate by colour pair
Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.
splash
Win rate: strong players and all players
Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.
Win rate on the play and on the draw
Win rate by number of copies in the deck
- 1 copy51.8 % · 24,129 games
- 2 copies51.4 % · 4,699 games
- 3 copies50.0 % · 566 games
Win rate since the set came out (card in hand)
- First two weeks52.4 % · 9,466 games
- Next two weeks53.8 % · 3,230 games
- After that51.1 % · 1,943 games
Win rate alongside other cards
Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.
Cards it wins less with
- Melancholic Poet1,661 games · 48.6 % (instead of 52.5% expected)
- Adventurous Eater // Have a Bite1,719 games · 48.7 % (instead of 51.3% expected)
Where it is played
G/U · 34 %
Played in 5.5% of the decks of the set
Other cards of the same cost and colours
6. Ambitious Augmenter
8.8
22. Slumbering Trudge
7.6
122. Studious First-Year // Rampant Growth
5.8
254. Oracle's Restoration
2.0
Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.