Quilled Greatwurm

Mythic · Creature — Wurm

Pick rating

6.0PlayableRank 106 of 271

Observed strength

55.3%Rank 121 of 274 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 55.7%

How are these measures computed?

Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.

Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).

Good playable that always makes the cut (6.0/10).

Why. A 7/7 trampler for six: every creature you control that deals combat damage during your turn gets that many +1/+1 counters, if it survives. If it dies, you can cast it from your graveyard by removing six counters from among your creatures.

Risks. Six mana is steep, and the recursion needs a lot of counters you will not have in a deck without support. Cheap removal handles it, though it can come back.

In the draft. A good finisher for a green deck that already applies pressure and generates counters. One copy is plenty; take it after removal and quality curve creatures.

Win rate of the card

Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.

Card in hand at some point in the game55.3 %(set average : 55.7 %)
Card in the opening hand53.1 %(set average : 54.8 %)
Card drawn during the game56.9 %(set average : 56.4 %)

Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : +3.1 win-rate points

How often it ends up in the deck once drafted by a strong player (not a win rate)86.0 %(set average : 61.0 %)

Its place in the set

  • Mythic: rank 13 of 20
  • Green: rank 15 of 43
  • Cost 6: rank 5 of 18
  • Average pick: 1.7 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)

Win rate by colour pair

Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.

4,054 games54.1 %(all pairs : 53.2 %)
3,687 games55.7 %(all pairs : 53.2 %)
3,038 games51.4 %(all pairs : 53.2 %)
2,400 games51.6 %(all pairs : 53.2 %)
1,209 games55.0 %(all pairs : 53.2 %)
220 games47.3 %(all pairs : 53.2 %)
103 games57.3 %(all pairs : 53.2 %)
100 games45.0 %(all pairs : 53.2 %)

Win rate: strong players and all players

Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.

Strong players (diamond and mythic ranks), card in hand53.5 %· 1,186 games
All players, card in hand55.0 %· 6,298 games

Win rate on the play and on the draw

Games on the play (the deck holds the card)55.6 %(set average : 55.6 %)
Games on the draw, so drawing from the first turn (the deck holds the card)50.7 %(set average : 53.5 %)

Win rate by number of copies in the deck

  • 1 copy53.2 % · 15,130 games
  • 2 copies53.9 % · 280 games

Win rate since the set came out (card in hand)

  • First two weeks54.9 % · 3,999 games
  • Next two weeks55.6 % · 2,003 games
  • After that52.7 % · 296 games

Win rate alongside other cards

Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.

Cards it wins more with

  • Doubling Season211 games · 50.2 % (instead of 43.9% expected)
  • Mossborn Hydra1,382 games · 55.1 % (instead of 51.5% expected)
  • Abrade1,437 games · 57.4 % (instead of 54.3% expected)

Cards it wins less with

Other cards of the same cost and colours

  • Affectionate Indrik

    158. Affectionate Indrik

    5.2
  • Muldrotha, the Gravetide

    181. Muldrotha, the Gravetide

    5.0
  • Quakestrider Ceratops

    205. Quakestrider Ceratops

    4.6
  • Apothecary Stomper

    250. Apothecary Stomper

    2.0

Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.