Little Bear
Common · Creature — Bear
2.0WeakRank 180 of 188
50.4%Rank 166 of 179 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 56.5%
How are these measures computed?
Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.
Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).
Not good filler and often gets cut (2.0/10).
Why. A 3/2 with flash for three mana: you can play it at the end of the opponent's turn or mid-combat to trap an attacker. When it enters, it untaps another creature you control (an attacker that can then block), and if that is a Bear, it gets a +1/+1 counter.
Risks. Only 2 toughness, so it dies to almost anything. The counter depends on another Bear, which is rare; without that, it's mostly a flash body and an untap with little effect.
In the draft. Filler green creature, playable for its flash. Take it late; it gets more interesting if you have other Bears.
Win rate of the card
Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.
Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : -1.9 win-rate points
Its place in the set
- Common: rank 59 of 65
- Green: rank 26 of 28
- Cost 3: rank 44 of 46
- Average pick: 10.7 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)
Win rate by colour pair
Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.
Win rate: strong players and all players
Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.
Win rate on the play and on the draw
Win rate by number of copies in the deck
- 1 copy52.3 % · 10,073 games
- 2 copies51.9 % · 4,050 games
- 3 copies49.6 % · 893 games
- 4 copies or more52.8 % · 358 games
Win rate since the set came out (card in hand)
- First two weeks50.3 % · 5,903 games
- Next two weeks50.3 % · 1,007 games
- After that50.4 % · 619 games
Win rate alongside other cards
Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.
Cards it wins more with
- Through the Forest Gate162 games · 48.1 % (instead of 44.9% expected)
- Key to the Side-Door301 games · 50.5 % (instead of 47.3% expected)
- Gigantic Big Bear1,995 games · 50.7 % (instead of 47.8% expected)
- Elven Raft-Steerer542 games · 47.8 % (instead of 45.1% expected)
Cards it wins less with
- Plunder the Trollshaws1,039 games · 47.8 % (instead of 51.7% expected)
- Inside Information293 games · 46.1 % (instead of 48.6% expected)
- My Precious // Allure of Power689 games · 45.6 % (instead of 47.6% expected)
Where it is played
B/G · 29 %G/W · 28 %
Played in 5.0% of the decks of the set
Other cards of the same cost and colours
32. Chief Warg's Company
7.0
38. Mirkwood Pathmaker
6.8
61. Down in the Valley
6.2
116. Mirkwood Nurturer
5.2
Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.