Down in the Valley
Rare · Enchantment — Saga
6.2GoodRank 61 of 188
55.8%Rank 77 of 179 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 56.5%
How are these measures computed?
Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.
Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).
Good playable that always makes the cut (6.2/10).
Why. A three-mana green Saga: chapter I fetches a basic land for your hand, chapter II adds Landfall, which creates a 1/1 green Elf token for each land, and chapters III and IV give the Elves +1/+0 and vigilance until end of turn.
Risks. Nothing immediate on the board. The Saga is sacrificed after chapter IV: Landfall only lasts a few turns, so you need lands to play from chapter II. The Elves stay small against a defensive opponent.
In the draft. A good tool for a slower green deck that wants fixing and tokens. A mid-pack pick; not a card for an aggressive deck.
Win rate of the card
Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.
Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : +3.4 win-rate points
Its place in the set
- Rare: rank 25 of 53
- Green: rank 6 of 28
- Cost 3: rank 16 of 46
- Average pick: 3.8 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)
Win rate by colour pair
Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.
Win rate: strong players and all players
Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.
Win rate on the play and on the draw
Win rate by number of copies in the deck
- 1 copy54.5 % · 9,119 games
- 2 copies59.7 % · 724 games
Win rate since the set came out (card in hand)
- First two weeks57.3 % · 3,098 games
- Next two weeks56.1 % · 733 games
- After that56.9 % · 503 games
Win rate alongside other cards
Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.
Cards it wins more with
- Elrond, Moon-Reader368 games · 54.9 % (instead of 49.2% expected)
- Thranduil, the Elvenking611 games · 51.6 % (instead of 46.8% expected)
- Elven Passage1,228 games · 58.7 % (instead of 54.1% expected)
- Through the Forest Gate270 games · 52.2 % (instead of 47.7% expected)
Cards it wins less with
- Pinecone Strike528 games · 52.7 % (instead of 56.3% expected)
- Bilbo, Luckwearer // Burglar's Plot1,659 games · 52.1 % (instead of 55.3% expected)
- Old Fat Spider Can't See Me882 games · 47.3 % (instead of 50.3% expected)
Other cards of the same cost and colours
32. Chief Warg's Company
7.0
38. Mirkwood Pathmaker
6.8
116. Mirkwood Nurturer
5.2
123. Duskwatch Hunter
5.0
Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.