Inside Information
Mythic · Sorcery
6.4GoodRank 55 of 188
49.0%Rank 171 of 179 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 56.5%
How are these measures computed?
Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.
Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).
It wins less than its rating suggests.
Why this gap?
The pick rating is a prior: it is for choosing a card before there are results. The observed strength comes from real games, and the win rate of a card is stable from one week to the next. The gap often comes from a card that is easy to replace at the pick but very efficient once played, from a good archetype that carries it, or from a flaw of our rating: in a set that already has many games, the results are more reliable than the rating.
Good playable that always makes the cut (6.4/10).
Why. A gamble of a spell: you pay X plus two black mana, exile that many cards from the top of the opponent's library, and may play them this turn by paying life instead of their cost. Used well, it gives you a hand of free cards from the opponent.
Risks. It is slow and unpredictable: you depend on what the opponent's deck contains and on your life total. Cards you do not play this turn are lost, and ending up low on life is a real risk.
In the draft. Niche card that is not worth its rarity. A last pick for a black control deck with little opposing pressure; elsewhere, pass it.
Win rate of the card
Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.
Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : -5.8 win-rate points
Its place in the set
- Mythic: rank 11 of 15
- Black: rank 11 of 27
- Cost 2: rank 20 of 55
- Average pick: 3.3 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)
Win rate by colour pair
Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.
Win rate: strong players and all players
Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.
Win rate on the play and on the draw
Win rate since the set came out (card in hand)
- First two weeks50.6 % · 1,475 games
- Next two weeks46.1 % · 243 games
- After that44.4 % · 187 games
Win rate alongside other cards
Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.
Cards it wins more with
- Radagast of Rhosgobel311 games · 57.2 % (instead of 49.6% expected)
- Elvenking's Halls283 games · 54.8 % (instead of 49.7% expected)
- Beorn, Reluctant Host // Till and Tend528 games · 53.0 % (instead of 48.9% expected)
- Boughside Wanderers542 games · 54.8 % (instead of 50.7% expected)
Cards it wins less with
- Warg Tactics473 games · 46.3 % (instead of 51.4% expected)
- Chief Warg's Company392 games · 51.3 % (instead of 54.8% expected)
- Nighthowl Pursuer1,071 games · 51.4 % (instead of 54.4% expected)
Other cards of the same cost and colours
5. Gollum, Riddle Master
8.8
16. Desolation Prowler
7.6
49. The Sackville-Bagginses
6.6
62. Goblin Plate Mail
6.2
Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.