Old Thrush
Common · Creature — Bird
5.1PlayableRank 120 of 188
53.6%Rank 120 of 179 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 56.5%
How are these measures computed?
Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.
Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).
A solid playable that rarely gets cut (5.1/10).
Why. A 1/2 flier for two mana, colorless: it fits in any deck. When it enters, it gains you 2 life and lets you search for a basic land, which you put on top of your library and draw next turn.
Risks. A 1/2 that attacks little and blocks poorly. The land you find replaces your next draw, so it isn't card advantage. It remains curve filler with no impact on the game.
In the draft. A last resort: it plays in every color and smooths your lands. Take it late, never before a real card of your color.
Win rate of the card
Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.
Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : +1.7 win-rate points
Its place in the set
- Common: rank 30 of 65
- Colourless: rank 14 of 22
- Cost 2: rank 37 of 55
- Average pick: 10.4 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)
Win rate by colour pair
Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.
Win rate: strong players and all players
Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.
Win rate on the play and on the draw
Win rate by number of copies in the deck
- 1 copy53.7 % · 21,508 games
- 2 copies53.8 % · 3,121 games
- 3 copies48.6 % · 294 games
Win rate since the set came out (card in hand)
- First two weeks53.4 % · 7,119 games
- Next two weeks56.1 % · 2,792 games
- After that56.7 % · 1,987 games
Win rate alongside other cards
Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.
Cards it wins more with
- Cantankerous Keepers440 games · 58.0 % (instead of 49.9% expected)
- Thranduil, the Elvenking303 games · 51.2 % (instead of 45.5% expected)
- Mirkwood Meditator485 games · 49.9 % (instead of 45.8% expected)
- The Black Arrow1,033 games · 54.4 % (instead of 50.5% expected)
Cards it wins less with
- Bard, King of Dale511 games · 42.5 % (instead of 48.3% expected)
- Thorin, Mountain-king592 games · 51.5 % (instead of 56.0% expected)
- Key to the Side-Door322 games · 44.7 % (instead of 48.9% expected)
Other cards of the same cost and colours
86. Thrór's Map
5.8
90. Dwarven Mattock
5.6
127. Sting, Bilbo's Sword
5.0
129. Glamdring, Foe-hammer // Gleam of Death
4.9
Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.