Smaug, the Great Calamity // Spew Flame
Common · Legendary Creature — Dragon // Sorcery — Adventure
4.6WeakRank 143 of 188
56.0%Rank 72 of 179 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 56.5%
How are these measures computed?
Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.
Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).
It wins more than its rating suggests.
Why this gap?
The pick rating is a prior: it is for choosing a card before there are results. The observed strength comes from real games, and the win rate of a card is stable from one week to the next. The gap often comes from a card that is easy to replace at the pick but very efficient once played, from a good archetype that carries it, or from a flaw of our rating: in a set that already has many games, the results are more reliable than the rating.
A solid playable that rarely gets cut (4.6/10).
Why. Two cards in one: the Adventure (five mana, one of them red) deals five damage to a creature, then you can cast the 5/5 flying Dragon from exile for seven mana. Removal followed by a big aerial threat is a very solid two-for-one.
Risks. The Dragon costs seven mana with two red (RR): it is very slow. The Adventure makes you pay five mana, then seven for the creature. Once on the battlefield, the Dragon is a 5/5 flyer with no protection.
In the draft. Playable removal for any red deck, with a big finisher as a bonus, but the total cost makes it slow. Take it mid-pack.
Win rate of the card
Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.
Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : +0.6 win-rate points
Its place in the set
- Common: rank 42 of 65
- Red: rank 23 of 29
- Cost 7: rank 3 of 3
- Average pick: 7.0 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)
Win rate by colour pair
Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.
Win rate: strong players and all players
Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.
Win rate on the play and on the draw
Win rate by number of copies in the deck
- 1 copy56.4 % · 60,392 games
- 2 copies56.1 % · 13,083 games
- 3 copies55.0 % · 996 games
Win rate since the set came out (card in hand)
- First two weeks56.4 % · 22,820 games
- Next two weeks56.6 % · 6,576 games
- After that58.1 % · 4,205 games
Win rate alongside other cards
Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.
Cards it wins more with
- Roll-Roll-Roll-Roll159 games · 50.9 % (instead of 46.3% expected)
- Supper for Spiders245 games · 47.8 % (instead of 46.1% expected)
- Roads Go Ever, Ever On2,741 games · 57.4 % (instead of 56.1% expected)
- Along the Crooked Way2,911 games · 55.0 % (instead of 53.7% expected)
Cards it wins less with
- Moment of Glory2,001 games · 48.6 % (instead of 52.6% expected)
- Bard's Company1,172 games · 54.9 % (instead of 58.3% expected)
- Esgaroth Garrison2,418 games · 53.1 % (instead of 55.2% expected)
Where it is played
R/W · 94 %B/R · 63 %
Played in 23% of the decks of the set
Other cards of the same cost and colours
65. Stone-Giant of High Pass
6.2
Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.