Esgaroth Garrison
Common · Creature — Human Soldier
5.0PlayableRank 125 of 188
56.7%Rank 61 of 179 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 56.5%
How are these measures computed?
Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.
Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).
It wins more than its rating suggests.
Why this gap?
The pick rating is a prior: it is for choosing a card before there are results. The observed strength comes from real games, and the win rate of a card is stable from one week to the next. The gap often comes from a card that is easy to replace at the pick but very efficient once played, from a good archetype that carries it, or from a flaw of our rating: in a set that already has many games, the results are more reliable than the rating.
A solid playable that rarely gets cut (5.0/10).
Why. Its power depends on the number of creatures you control, itself included: alone, it is a 1/5, but with a little company it becomes a real threat. When it enters, you draw then discard; discarding a nonland card gives a 1/1 Human Soldier token, which strengthens it right away.
Risks. Five mana for a body that is only massive if you already have creatures. The token only comes if you discard a nonland card. It loses a lot of value against an opponent who removes your small creatures.
In the draft. A decent card for a white-blue deck full of creatures. Worse in a control deck or one with few creatures.
Win rate of the card
Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.
Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : +3.6 win-rate points
Its place in the set
- Common: rank 33 of 65
- White: rank 18 of 28
- Cost 5: rank 12 of 21
- Average pick: 10.7 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)
Win rate by colour pair
Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.
splash
Win rate: strong players and all players
Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.
Win rate on the play and on the draw
Win rate by number of copies in the deck
- 1 copy54.9 % · 20,854 games
- 2 copies55.5 % · 6,164 games
- 3 copies55.3 % · 731 games
Win rate since the set came out (card in hand)
- First two weeks55.3 % · 8,582 games
- Next two weeks57.8 % · 3,863 games
- After that59.0 % · 2,529 games
Win rate alongside other cards
Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.
Cards it wins more with
- The Arkenstone // Seek the Heart1,261 games · 60.9 % (instead of 56.7% expected)
- Mirkwood Meditator252 games · 51.2 % (instead of 47.2% expected)
- Old Fat Spider Can't See Me4,297 games · 53.8 % (instead of 50.5% expected)
- The Lord of the Eagles1,005 games · 53.0 % (instead of 49.7% expected)
Cards it wins less with
- The Black Arrow618 games · 46.0 % (instead of 51.9% expected)
- Vow to Erebor1,370 games · 46.6 % (instead of 52.0% expected)
- Sting, Bilbo's Sword557 games · 45.6 % (instead of 50.4% expected)
Where it is played
U/W · 34 %
Played in 8.9% of the decks of the set
Other cards of the same cost and colours
109. Magnificent End
5.3
185. Eagle of the Great Shelf
1.8
Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.