Ajani's Response
Common · Instant
5.6PlayableRank 126 of 266
57.6%Rank 83 of 319 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 56.3%
How are these measures computed?
Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.
Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).
It wins more than its rating suggests.
Why this gap?
The pick rating is a prior: it is for choosing a card before there are results. The observed strength comes from real games, and the win rate of a card is stable from one week to the next. The gap often comes from a card that is easy to replace at the pick but very efficient once played, from a good archetype that carries it, or from a flaw of our rating: in a set that already has many games, the results are more reliable than the rating.
Good playable that always makes the cut (5.6/10).
Why. An instant that destroys any creature. At five mana, it costs three less when it targets a tapped creature: two mana to kill an attacker, which makes it a flexible removal.
Risks. It is expensive against an untapped creature. It puts you under pressure if you must pay full price.
In the draft. A good white common removal, taken fairly early. It is better in a deck that lets the opponent attack.
Win rate of the card
Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.
Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : +1.8 win-rate points
Its place in the set
- Common: rank 18 of 86
- White: rank 15 of 32
- Cost 5: rank 11 of 27
- Average pick: 6.0 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)
Win rate by colour pair
Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.
splash
splash
splash
Win rate: strong players and all players
Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.
Win rate on the play and on the draw
Win rate by number of copies in the deck
- 1 copy57.0 % · 92,052 games
- 2 copies57.3 % · 24,072 games
- 3 copies56.7 % · 2,998 games
- 4 copies or more55.9 % · 320 games
Win rate since the set came out (card in hand)
- First two weeks58.9 % · 30,155 games
- Next two weeks57.5 % · 18,772 games
- After that56.5 % · 10,938 games
Win rate alongside other cards
Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.
Cards it wins more with
- Glorious Decay403 games · 57.8 % (instead of 51.6% expected)
- Biblioplex Tomekeeper485 games · 50.9 % (instead of 48.6% expected)
- Zaffai and the Tempests689 games · 54.1 % (instead of 52.3% expected)
Where it is played
R/W · 46 %B/W · 44 %
Played in 22% of the decks of the set
Other cards of the same cost and colours
70. Lorehold, the Historian
6.6
94. Stirring Honormancer
6.2
136. Primary Research
5.6
184. Ascendant Dustspeaker
4.8
Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.