Lluwen, Exchange Student // Pest Friend

Uncommon · Legendary Creature — Elf Druid // Sorcery

Pick rating

5.6PlayableRank 133 of 266

Observed strength

55.9%Rank 154 of 319 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 56.3%

How are these measures computed?

Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.

Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).

Good playable that always makes the cut (5.6/10).

Why. A four-mana 3/4 that enters prepared: for one mana you create a 1/1 black and green Pest creature token. Lluwen becomes prepared again if you exile a creature card from your graveyard, at sorcery speed. Solid body and repeatable value.

Risks. The Pest token is small, and the next preparation needs a creature in your graveyard. Two colors, black and green.

In the draft. A good black-green uncommon, taken mid-pack in those colors. The body holds up alone.

Win rate of the card

Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.

Card in hand at some point in the game55.9 %(set average : 56.3 %)
Card in the opening hand53.6 %(set average : 54.9 %)
Card drawn during the game57.4 %(set average : 57.2 %)

Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : +3.2 win-rate points

How often it ends up in the deck once drafted by a strong player (not a win rate)73.0 %(set average : 63.0 %)

Its place in the set

  • Uncommon: rank 47 of 100
  • Multicolour: rank 43 of 77
  • Cost 4: rank 20 of 42
  • Average pick: 5.1 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)

Win rate by colour pair

Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.

25,944 games55.6 %(all pairs : 54.6 %)
4,168 games50.6 %(all pairs : 54.6 %)
1,381 games48.5 %(all pairs : 54.6 %)
977 games55.6 %(all pairs : 54.6 %)

splash

446 games51.8 %(all pairs : 54.6 %)

splash

282 games52.1 %(all pairs : 54.6 %)
213 games53.1 %(all pairs : 54.6 %)

splash

113 games60.2 %(all pairs : 54.6 %)

Win rate: strong players and all players

Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.

Strong players (diamond and mythic ranks), card in hand55.3 %· 2,984 games
All players, card in hand56.5 %· 15,057 games

Win rate on the play and on the draw

Games on the play (the deck holds the card)56.9 %(set average : 58.0 %)
Games on the draw, so drawing from the first turn (the deck holds the card)52.3 %(set average : 52.8 %)

Win rate by number of copies in the deck

  • 1 copy54.5 % · 29,848 games
  • 2 copies55.6 % · 3,817 games
  • 3 copies52.8 % · 195 games

Win rate since the set came out (card in hand)

  • First two weeks57.3 % · 8,788 games
  • Next two weeks55.5 % · 4,005 games
  • After that55.7 % · 2,264 games

Win rate alongside other cards

Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.

Cards it wins more with

Cards it wins less with

Where it is played

B/G · 36 %

Played in 6.3% of the decks of the set

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Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.