Seismic Sense

Uncommon · Sorcery — Lesson

Pick rating

5.8PlayableRank 125 of 281

Observed strength

55.6%Rank 130 of 279 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 56.2%

How are these measures computed?

Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.

Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).

Good playable that always makes the cut (5.8/10).

Why. A one-mana sorcery that looks at as many cards as you have lands and lets you take a creature or land. With four lands you see four cards, and the rest go to the bottom. It is a cheap way to find your next piece.

Risks. It only takes creatures or lands and does nothing for the board. Early in the game it sees few cards. It counts as a Lesson but does nothing else.

In the draft. A support card for a green Lessons deck or one with a heavy creature count. Take it late, after your creatures.

Win rate of the card

Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.

Card in hand at some point in the game55.6 %(set average : 56.2 %)
Card in the opening hand53.3 %(set average : 55.4 %)
Card drawn during the game57.3 %(set average : 56.8 %)

Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : +1.1 win-rate points

How often it ends up in the deck once drafted by a strong player (not a win rate)71.0 %(set average : 61.0 %)

Its place in the set

  • Uncommon: rank 50 of 110
  • Green: rank 16 of 39
  • Cost 1: rank 15 of 26
  • Average pick: 7.0 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)

Win rate by colour pair

Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.

7,763 games55.6 %(all pairs : 55.7 %)
6,719 games57.6 %(all pairs : 55.7 %)
5,759 games55.8 %(all pairs : 55.7 %)
5,169 games54.7 %(all pairs : 55.7 %)
4,580 games56.4 %(all pairs : 55.7 %)
2,334 games53.4 %(all pairs : 55.7 %)
1,403 games54.7 %(all pairs : 55.7 %)
1,298 games58.9 %(all pairs : 55.7 %)

Win rate: strong players and all players

Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.

Strong players (diamond and mythic ranks), card in hand55.9 %· 5,301 games
All players, card in hand56.3 %· 17,486 games

Win rate on the play and on the draw

Games on the play (the deck holds the card)59.0 %(set average : 59.1 %)
Games on the draw, so drawing from the first turn (the deck holds the card)52.4 %(set average : 52.9 %)

Win rate by number of copies in the deck

  • 1 copy55.7 % · 34,473 games
  • 2 copies55.4 % · 3,762 games
  • 3 copies58.2 % · 225 games

Win rate since the set came out (card in hand)

  • First two weeks55.6 % · 8,929 games
  • Next two weeks57.2 % · 4,963 games
  • After that56.5 % · 3,594 games

Win rate alongside other cards

Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.

Cards it wins more with

Cards it wins less with

Where it is played

G/U · 29 %G/R · 28 %

Played in 6.9% of the decks of the set

Other cards of the same cost and colours

  • Earthen Ally

    68. Earthen Ally

    6.6
  • Pillar Launch

    96. Pillar Launch

    6.2
  • Turtle-Duck

    173. Turtle-Duck

    5.2

Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.