Crib Swap
Uncommon · Kindred Instant — Shapeshifter
4.0WeakRank 228 of 264
50.2%Rank 247 of 264 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 55.7%
How are these measures computed?
Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.
Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).
A good playable, but is sometimes cut (4.0/10).
Why. A three-mana instant that exiles a target creature. Its controller gets a 1/1 colourless Shapeshifter creature token with changeling. A clean removal at instant speed with a consolation prize.
Risks. The opponent keeps a small body, so it is weaker than a pure removal. The token can also help a tribal deck.
In the draft. A playable removal in white, to take when nothing better is on offer. Do not overvalue it.
Win rate of the card
Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.
Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : -0.7 win-rate points
Its place in the set
- Uncommon: rank 85 of 100
- White: rank 37 of 41
- Cost 3: rank 57 of 66
- Average pick: 8.4 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)
Win rate by colour pair
Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.
Win rate: strong players and all players
Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.
Win rate on the play and on the draw
Win rate by number of copies in the deck
- 1 copy51.4 % · 10,426 games
- 2 copies51.1 % · 983 games
Win rate since the set came out (card in hand)
- First two weeks50.1 % · 3,394 games
- Next two weeks48.2 % · 1,138 games
- After that59.1 % · 408 games
Win rate alongside other cards
Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.
Cards it wins more with
- Ajani, Outland Chaperone657 games · 56.6 % (instead of 52.2% expected)
- Champions of the Shoal893 games · 58.1 % (instead of 54.1% expected)
- Kithkeeper1,032 games · 51.9 % (instead of 48.8% expected)
- Abigale, Eloquent First-Year839 games · 54.7 % (instead of 52.3% expected)
Cards it wins less with
- Reaping Willow1,267 games · 47.7 % (instead of 50.7% expected)
- Winnowing716 games · 46.5 % (instead of 49.5% expected)
- Rooftop Percher1,227 games · 48.9 % (instead of 51.4% expected)
Other cards of the same cost and colours
13. Brigid's Command
8.3
15. Ajani, Outland Chaperone
8.1
34. Eclipsed Merrow
7.3
41. Brigid, Clachan's Heart // Brigid, Doun's Mind
7.0
Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.