Mutable Explorer
Rare · Creature — Shapeshifter
5.8PlayableRank 115 of 264
54.1%Rank 162 of 264 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 55.7%
How are these measures computed?
Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.
Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).
Good playable that always makes the cut (5.8/10).
Why. A 1/1 changeling for three that creates a tapped land token that can become a 2/2 creature for one mana. You gain an extra land and a threat that dodges sorcery-speed removal.
Risks. The 1/1 body is weak, and the land token turned creature is still vulnerable to removal. You invest three mana for slow value.
In the draft. A decent card for a green deck that benefits from an extra land. Take it in the middle of your pool, not before a good removal spell.
Win rate of the card
Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.
Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : +0.9 win-rate points
Its place in the set
- Rare: rank 47 of 61
- Green: rank 18 of 40
- Cost 3: rank 28 of 66
- Average pick: 2.8 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)
Win rate by colour pair
Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.
Win rate: strong players and all players
Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.
Win rate on the play and on the draw
Win rate by number of copies in the deck
- 1 copy54.6 % · 17,823 games
- 2 copies54.0 % · 561 games
Win rate since the set came out (card in hand)
- First two weeks55.4 % · 5,489 games
- Next two weeks54.3 % · 1,690 games
- After that53.6 % · 539 games
Win rate alongside other cards
Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.
Cards it wins more with
- Barbed Bloodletter922 games · 55.6 % (instead of 52.5% expected)
- Bloodline Bidding1,007 games · 59.1 % (instead of 56.0% expected)
- Champion of the Clachan1,021 games · 57.8 % (instead of 54.8% expected)
- Personify1,144 games · 57.4 % (instead of 54.5% expected)
Cards it wins less with
- Cinder Strike1,424 games · 50.1 % (instead of 54.1% expected)
- Tweeze1,403 games · 49.7 % (instead of 53.5% expected)
Other cards of the same cost and colours
13. Brigid's Command
8.3
25. Trystan, Callous Cultivator // Trystan, Penitent Culler
7.6
29. Eclipsed Elf
7.4
46. Morcant's Loyalist
7.0
Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.