Cephalid Inkmage

Uncommon · Creature — Octopus Wizard

Pick rating

5.2PlayableRank 161 of 271

Observed strength

53.6%Rank 174 of 274 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 55.7%

How are these measures computed?

Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.

Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).

A solid playable that rarely gets cut (5.2/10).

Why. A three-mana 2/2 that surveils 3 when it enters. With threshold it can't be blocked, a good threat for decks that fill their graveyard.

Risks. A small body, and threshold needs seven cards in your graveyard, which takes time. Before that it is an ordinary 2/2.

In the draft. A mid-to-late pack pick for a blue-black control or graveyard deck. Not a priority.

Win rate of the card

Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.

Card in hand at some point in the game53.6 %(set average : 55.7 %)
Card in the opening hand51.7 %(set average : 54.8 %)
Card drawn during the game54.8 %(set average : 56.4 %)

Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : +1.5 win-rate points

How often it ends up in the deck once drafted by a strong player (not a win rate)51.0 %(set average : 61.0 %)

Its place in the set

  • Uncommon: rank 56 of 101
  • Blue: rank 26 of 44
  • Cost 3: rank 40 of 69
  • Average pick: 8.0 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)

Win rate by colour pair

Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.

18,581 games53.6 %(all pairs : 52.8 %)
7,559 games54.2 %(all pairs : 52.8 %)
6,142 games51.4 %(all pairs : 52.8 %)
4,217 games51.6 %(all pairs : 52.8 %)
1,190 games51.8 %(all pairs : 52.8 %)
579 games41.8 %(all pairs : 52.8 %)
381 games47.0 %(all pairs : 52.8 %)
292 games52.4 %(all pairs : 52.8 %)

Win rate: strong players and all players

Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.

Strong players (diamond and mythic ranks), card in hand53.2 %· 4,158 games
All players, card in hand53.4 %· 19,113 games

Win rate on the play and on the draw

Games on the play (the deck holds the card)53.8 %(set average : 55.6 %)
Games on the draw, so drawing from the first turn (the deck holds the card)51.8 %(set average : 53.5 %)

Win rate by number of copies in the deck

  • 1 copy52.9 % · 34,581 games
  • 2 copies52.3 % · 4,549 games
  • 3 copies49.6 % · 385 games

Win rate since the set came out (card in hand)

  • First two weeks53.8 % · 12,540 games
  • Next two weeks53.1 % · 5,638 games
  • After that50.4 % · 935 games

Win rate alongside other cards

Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.

Cards it wins more with

Cards it wins less with

  • Boltwave374 games · 43.3 % (instead of 46.2% expected)
  • Goblin Surprise2,232 games · 49.6 % (instead of 51.8% expected)

Other cards of the same cost and colours

  • Kiora, the Rising Tide

    15. Kiora, the Rising Tide

    8.2
  • Faebloom Trick

    18. Faebloom Trick

    7.9
  • Empyrean Eagle

    21. Empyrean Eagle

    7.7
  • Dreadwing Scavenger

    24. Dreadwing Scavenger

    7.6

Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.