Bestial Incursion
Common · Sorcery
4.6WeakRank 210 of 280
56.4%Rank 99 of 271 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 56.2%
How are these measures computed?
Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.
Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).
It wins more than its rating suggests.
Why this gap?
The pick rating is a prior: it is for choosing a card before there are results. The observed strength comes from real games, and the win rate of a card is stable from one week to the next. The gap often comes from a card that is easy to replace at the pick but very efficient once played, from a good archetype that carries it, or from a flaw of our rating: in a set that already has many games, the results are more reliable than the rating.
A solid playable that rarely gets cut (4.6/10).
Why. A four-mana sorcery that makes a 4/4 green Beast creature token with trample, then returns with flashback for six mana and a second Beast. Two big bodies from one card, great against removal.
Risks. A plain 4/4 with no protection from removal, and the six-mana flashback is slow. It is easy to double-block.
In the draft. A good mid-curve card for green. Take it when it comes around, without making it a priority.
Win rate of the card
Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.
Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : +2.1 win-rate points
Its place in the set
- Common: rank 42 of 81
- Green: rank 28 of 37
- Cost 4: rank 30 of 37
- Average pick: 6.5 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)
Win rate by colour pair
Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.
Win rate: strong players and all players
Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.
Win rate on the play and on the draw
Win rate by number of copies in the deck
- 1 copy55.4 % · 43,546 games
- 2 copies55.8 % · 14,856 games
- 3 copies56.7 % · 2,364 games
- 4 copies or more56.0 % · 348 games
Win rate alongside other cards
Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.
Cards it wins more with
- Essence Burn223 games · 52.9 % (instead of 49.0% expected)
- Stingcaster Mage897 games · 59.6 % (instead of 56.2% expected)
- Vindictive Triumph588 games · 56.8 % (instead of 53.9% expected)
Cards it wins less with
- The Theorist, Jace Beleren821 games · 55.9 % (instead of 61.1% expected)
- Bloodline Recollector // Ancestral Craving367 games · 48.0 % (instead of 52.9% expected)
- Sphinx's Approach1,630 games · 51.0 % (instead of 55.7% expected)
Other cards of the same cost and colours
12. Aerid Konstrari
8.4
63. Bloombrute
6.6
113. Titanbones, Towering Heart
6.0
140. Jiang Yanggu, Never Alone
5.6
Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.