Smaug, Wicked Worm
Rare · Legendary Creature — Dragon
6.6GoodRank 50 of 188
54.7%Rank 100 of 179 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 56.5%
How are these measures computed?
Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.
Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).
It wins less than its rating suggests.
Why this gap?
The pick rating is a prior: it is for choosing a card before there are results. The observed strength comes from real games, and the win rate of a card is stable from one week to the next. The gap often comes from a card that is easy to replace at the pick but very efficient once played, from a good archetype that carries it, or from a flaw of our rating: in a set that already has many games, the results are more reliable than the rating.
A very good rare of the format (6.6/10).
Why. A 5/5 flyer for five mana: the body alone justifies its place. When it enters, you get one tapped Treasure for each artifact your opponents control, and every spell paid for with mana from a Treasure draws you a card (at the cost of 1 life).
Risks. It needs two colors, black and red, which narrows the decks that play it. Against an opponent with no artifacts, the first ability gives nothing, and the card draw is paid for in life.
In the draft. Take it if you're already black-red or close to it: a solid flying finisher. Don't take it early without a color commitment, since it only plays in that color pair.
Win rate of the card
Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.
Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : -0.3 win-rate points
Its place in the set
- Rare: rank 22 of 53
- Multicolour: rank 7 of 26
- Cost 5: rank 6 of 21
- Average pick: 2.3 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)
Win rate by colour pair
Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.
splash
splash
splash
splash
splash
Win rate: strong players and all players
Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.
Win rate on the play and on the draw
Win rate by number of copies in the deck
- 1 copy55.7 % · 12,614 games
- 2 copies54.6 % · 544 games
Win rate since the set came out (card in hand)
- First two weeks55.6 % · 4,128 games
- Next two weeks57.6 % · 825 games
- After that53.5 % · 482 games
Win rate alongside other cards
Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.
Cards it wins more with
- Desert Were-Worm454 games · 54.4 % (instead of 50.2% expected)
- My Precious // Allure of Power796 games · 54.8 % (instead of 51.3% expected)
- Along the Crooked Way867 games · 55.1 % (instead of 53.2% expected)
- Balin, Loremaster346 games · 54.6 % (instead of 53.1% expected)
Cards it wins less with
- Dwarven Mattock671 games · 51.0 % (instead of 55.5% expected)
- Attercop753 games · 51.9 % (instead of 54.9% expected)
- Dwarven Mauler1,933 games · 54.3 % (instead of 56.8% expected)
Other cards of the same cost and colours
34. Tom, Bert, and William
7.0
48. Misty Mountains Raider
6.6
77. Large Bear
5.9
100. Dreaded Bat-Cloud
5.4
Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.