Toxic Deluge

Rare · Sorcery

Pick rating

7.9Very goodRank 21 of 302

Observed strength

58.9%Rank 37 of 298 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 56.2%

How are these measures computed?

Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.

Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).

One of the very best rares of the format (7.9/10).

Why. A three-mana sorcery that gives all creatures -X/-X until end of turn for X life you pay: you pick X to fit the situation. It resets the game when you are behind or sweeps small enemy creatures while your bigger ones survive.

Risks. It is symmetrical and costs life. In a creature deck it removes your own board, and it is poor against an aggressive opponent when your life total is low.

In the draft. A fair pick for a black control deck with few creatures and some life gain. Skip it in aggressive decks.

Win rate of the card

Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.

Card in hand at some point in the game58.9 %(set average : 56.2 %)
Card in the opening hand56.2 %(set average : 55.6 %)
Card drawn during the game60.8 %(set average : 56.7 %)

Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : +6.3 win-rate points

How often it ends up in the deck once drafted by a strong player (not a win rate)89.0 %(set average : 67.0 %)

Its place in the set

  • Rare: rank 11 of 78
  • Black: rank 4 of 42
  • Cost 3: rank 6 of 75
  • Average pick: 2.3 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)

Win rate by colour pair

Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.

7,241 games58.5 %(all pairs : 54.9 %)
4,362 games55.4 %(all pairs : 54.9 %)
3,554 games53.4 %(all pairs : 54.9 %)
2,922 games53.9 %(all pairs : 54.9 %)
1,252 games54.3 %(all pairs : 54.9 %)
1,204 games51.6 %(all pairs : 54.9 %)
1,196 games52.4 %(all pairs : 54.9 %)
969 games51.1 %(all pairs : 54.9 %)

splash

Win rate: strong players and all players

Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.

Strong players (diamond and mythic ranks), card in hand58.3 %· 2,821 games
All players, card in hand58.6 %· 11,902 games

Win rate on the play and on the draw

Games on the play (the deck holds the card)57.3 %(set average : 58.8 %)
Games on the draw, so drawing from the first turn (the deck holds the card)52.5 %(set average : 51.4 %)

Win rate by number of copies in the deck

  • 1 copy54.8 % · 26,270 games
  • 2 copies56.7 % · 987 games

Win rate since the set came out (card in hand)

  • First two weeks58.4 % · 6,400 games
  • Next two weeks59.3 % · 3,965 games
  • After that58.0 % · 1,537 games

Win rate alongside other cards

Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.

Cards it wins more with

Cards it wins less with

Other cards of the same cost and colours

  • Ophiomancer

    19. Ophiomancer

    8.0
  • Mindless Conscription

    50. Mindless Conscription

    7.0
  • Horrid Shadowspinner

    80. Horrid Shadowspinner

    6.6
  • Breathe Your Last

    127. Breathe Your Last

    5.8

Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.