Restoration Seminar

Mythic · Sorcery — Lesson

Pick rating

7.0GoodRank 46 of 266

Observed strength

57.4%Rank 88 of 319 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 56.3%

How are these measures computed?

Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.

Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).

A very good mythic of the format (7.0/10).

Why. For seven mana you return a nonland permanent card from your graveyard to the battlefield, then Paradigm repeats the effect for free every turn. A dead big creature keeps coming back.

Risks. Seven mana is very heavy, and with no good target in your graveyard it is dead. Your deck must survive until it arrives.

In the draft. A slow finisher pick for a white control deck with valuable creatures. Do not take it early in an aggressive deck.

Win rate of the card

Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.

Card in hand at some point in the game57.4 %(set average : 56.3 %)
Card in the opening hand54.1 %(set average : 54.9 %)
Card drawn during the game59.4 %(set average : 57.2 %)

Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : +4.6 win-rate points

How often it ends up in the deck once drafted by a strong player (not a win rate)84.0 %(set average : 63.0 %)

Its place in the set

  • Mythic: rank 11 of 20
  • White: rank 6 of 32
  • Cost 7: rank 3 of 8
  • Average pick: 2.0 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)

Win rate by colour pair

Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.

6,131 games58.3 %(all pairs : 56.0 %)
3,586 games56.1 %(all pairs : 56.0 %)
903 games56.9 %(all pairs : 56.0 %)
510 games49.4 %(all pairs : 56.0 %)
494 games55.3 %(all pairs : 56.0 %)

splash

291 games58.4 %(all pairs : 56.0 %)

splash

280 games44.6 %(all pairs : 56.0 %)

splash

277 games50.2 %(all pairs : 56.0 %)

splash

Win rate: strong players and all players

Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.

Strong players (diamond and mythic ranks), card in hand58.6 %· 1,416 games
All players, card in hand58.4 %· 5,989 games

Win rate on the play and on the draw

Games on the play (the deck holds the card)58.8 %(set average : 58.0 %)
Games on the draw, so drawing from the first turn (the deck holds the card)53.2 %(set average : 52.8 %)

Win rate since the set came out (card in hand)

  • First two weeks58.9 % · 3,296 games
  • Next two weeks57.2 % · 1,674 games
  • After that58.9 % · 1,019 games

Win rate alongside other cards

Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.

Cards it wins more with

Cards it wins less with

Other cards of the same cost and colours

  • Moment of Reckoning

    14. Moment of Reckoning

    8.2

Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.