Dragonologist

Rare · Creature — Human Wizard

Pick rating

7.5Very goodRank 26 of 271

Observed strength

59.3%Rank 31 of 274 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 56.0%

How are these measures computed?

Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.

Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).

One of the very best rares of the format (7.6/10).

Why. A 1/3 for three mana that looks at the top six cards of your library and lets you take an instant, a sorcery or a Dragon. It can find a good spell, and it gives your untapped Dragons hexproof.

Risks. The body is small and the effect is only good if the deck has enough spells and Dragons. In a deck without them, it is an average 1/3.

In the draft. A good card for a blue deck with spells and Dragons. Take it at a fair price, but not ahead of your best threats.

Win rate of the card

Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.

Card in hand at some point in the game59.3 %(set average : 56.0 %)
Card in the opening hand56.7 %(set average : 54.9 %)
Card drawn during the game60.9 %(set average : 56.7 %)

Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : +7.1 win-rate points

How often it ends up in the deck once drafted by a strong player (not a win rate)92.0 %(set average : 65.0 %)

Its place in the set

  • Rare: rank 13 of 60
  • Blue: rank 3 of 34
  • Cost 3: rank 6 of 60
  • Average pick: 2.6 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)

Win rate by colour pair

Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.

9,640 games56.1 %(all pairs : 56.0 %)
6,811 games55.3 %(all pairs : 56.0 %)
6,292 games56.6 %(all pairs : 56.0 %)
2,381 games55.9 %(all pairs : 56.0 %)
1,705 games56.5 %(all pairs : 56.0 %)
1,522 games55.4 %(all pairs : 56.0 %)
1,454 games56.5 %(all pairs : 56.0 %)
1,378 games56.5 %(all pairs : 56.0 %)

Win rate: strong players and all players

Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.

Strong players (diamond and mythic ranks), card in hand59.5 %· 3,722 games
All players, card in hand59.1 %· 15,560 games

Win rate on the play and on the draw

Games on the play (the deck holds the card)58.6 %(set average : 58.0 %)
Games on the draw, so drawing from the first turn (the deck holds the card)53.4 %(set average : 52.1 %)

Win rate by number of copies in the deck

  • 1 copy56.0 % · 31,567 games
  • 2 copies55.2 % · 1,473 games

Win rate since the set came out (card in hand)

  • First two weeks59.8 % · 9,458 games
  • Next two weeks57.3 % · 4,429 games
  • After that60.0 % · 1,673 games

Win rate alongside other cards

Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.

Cards it wins more with

Cards it wins less with

Other cards of the same cost and colours

  • Winternight Stories

    33. Winternight Stories

    7.4
  • Temur Battlecrier

    38. Temur Battlecrier

    7.2
  • Awaken the Honored Dead

    40. Awaken the Honored Dead

    7.1
  • Rediscover the Way

    46. Rediscover the Way

    7.0

Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.