Lightning Strike
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Lightning Strike

Common · Instant

Pick rating

6.2GoodRank 94 of 281

Observed strength

57.2%Rank 78 of 279 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 56.2%

How are these measures computed?

Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.

Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).

Good playable that always makes the cut (6.2/10).

Why. A two-mana instant that deals 3 damage to any target. It kills most early creatures, or finishes an opponent at low life.

Risks. Three damage does not cut it against big creatures. It is a straight one-for-one trade and no more.

In the draft. Solid removal to take in a red deck. Look for several; it earns its slot in every red archetype.

Win rate of the card

Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.

Card in hand at some point in the game57.2 %(set average : 56.2 %)
Card in the opening hand55.7 %(set average : 55.4 %)
Card drawn during the game58.2 %(set average : 56.8 %)

Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : +2.5 win-rate points

How often it ends up in the deck once drafted by a strong player (not a win rate)82.0 %(set average : 61.0 %)

Its place in the set

  • Common: rank 5 of 91
  • Red: rank 11 of 40
  • Cost 2: rank 23 of 74
  • Average pick: 4.2 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)

Win rate by colour pair

Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.

27,784 games57.1 %(all pairs : 56.1 %)
25,351 games58.1 %(all pairs : 56.1 %)
15,145 games54.8 %(all pairs : 56.1 %)
13,520 games55.6 %(all pairs : 56.1 %)
9,085 games55.0 %(all pairs : 56.1 %)
3,930 games54.2 %(all pairs : 56.1 %)
2,959 games52.7 %(all pairs : 56.1 %)
2,826 games51.6 %(all pairs : 56.1 %)

Win rate: strong players and all players

Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.

Strong players (diamond and mythic ranks), card in hand57.3 %· 16,553 games
All players, card in hand57.5 %· 57,329 games

Win rate on the play and on the draw

Games on the play (the deck holds the card)59.0 %(set average : 59.1 %)
Games on the draw, so drawing from the first turn (the deck holds the card)53.1 %(set average : 52.9 %)

Win rate by number of copies in the deck

  • 1 copy55.9 % · 77,350 games
  • 2 copies56.7 % · 27,110 games
  • 3 copies56.0 % · 6,043 games
  • 4 copies or more55.6 % · 1,092 games

Win rate since the set came out (card in hand)

  • First two weeks57.6 % · 30,447 games
  • Next two weeks57.2 % · 15,319 games
  • After that57.5 % · 11,563 games

Win rate alongside other cards

Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.

Cards it wins more with

Cards it wins less with

Where it is played

G/R · 60 %B/R · 54 %

Played in 18% of the decks of the set

Other cards of the same cost and colours

  • Iroh's Demonstration

    39. Iroh's Demonstration

    7.2
  • Combustion Technique

    45. Combustion Technique

    7.0
  • Tiger-Dillo

    71. Tiger-Dillo

    6.6
  • Sokka, Bold Boomeranger

    86. Sokka, Bold Boomeranger

    6.3

Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.