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Messenger Hawk

Common · Creature — Bird Scout

Pick rating

6.0PlayableRank 106 of 281

Observed strength

57.6%Rank 71 of 279 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 56.2%

How are these measures computed?

Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.

Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).

Good playable that always makes the cut (6.0/10).

Why. A three-mana flyer that makes a Clue token on arrival: immediate value and a body in the air to chip in and block opposing flyers. When you have drawn two cards in a turn it becomes a 3/2, which the Clue can enable on your turn.

Risks. A 1/2 is fragile and hits for little. The bonus needs two draws in a turn, which is not reliable. It can be paid with blue or black mana.

In the draft. A good common for blue or black decks that want value. Take it mid-pack; it fills the curve in tempo or control decks.

Win rate of the card

Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.

Card in hand at some point in the game57.6 %(set average : 56.2 %)

Card in the opening hand55.7 %(set average : 55.4 %)

Card drawn during the game58.7 %(set average : 56.8 %)

Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : +2.2 win-rate points

How often it ends up in the deck once drafted by a strong player (not a win rate)91.0 %(set average : 61.0 %)

Its place in the set

Common: rank 8 of 91
Multicolour: rank 27 of 51
Cost 3: rank 24 of 64
Average pick: 5.5 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)

Win rate by colour pair

Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.