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Count on Luck

Rare · Enchantment

Pick rating

4.6WeakRank 202 of 271

Observed strength

49.9%Rank 260 of 273 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 55.7%

How are these measures computed?

Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.

Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).

It wins less than its rating suggests.

Why this gap?

The pick rating is a prior: it is for choosing a card before there are results. The observed strength comes from real games, and the win rate of a card is stable from one week to the next. The gap often comes from a card that is easy to replace at the pick but very efficient once played, from a good archetype that carries it, or from a flaw of our rating: in a set that already has many games, the results are more reliable than the rating.

A solid playable that rarely gets cut (4.6/10).

Why. At the beginning of each of your upkeeps you exile the top card of your library and may play it that turn. It is a card advantage engine: the longer the game runs, the more it pays back.

Risks. It costs three red mana and does nothing on the battlefield the turn it lands. If you cannot play the exiled card (land drop used, not enough mana), it is lost. A two-colour deck struggles to cast it on time.

In the draft. Only in a nearly mono-red deck that can survive to the long game. Otherwise leave it: it is too slow and too demanding on red mana.

Win rate of the card

Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.

Card in hand at some point in the game49.9 %(set average : 55.7 %)

Card in the opening hand50.3 %(set average : 54.9 %)

Card drawn during the game49.6 %(set average : 56.3 %)

Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : -2.9 win-rate points

How often it ends up in the deck once drafted by a strong player (not a win rate)24.0 %(set average : 63.0 %)

Its place in the set

Rare: rank 58 of 60
Red: rank 20 of 38
Cost 3: rank 43 of 63
Average pick: 7.6 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)

Win rate by colour pair

Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.