Flame-Chain Mauler

Common · Creature — Elemental Warrior

Pick rating

4.5WeakRank 205 of 264

Observed strength

53.2%Rank 193 of 264 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 55.7%

How are these measures computed?

Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.

Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).

A good playable, but is sometimes cut (4.5/10).

Why. A 2/2 for two that can spend two mana for +1/+0 and menace until end of turn. In an aggressive deck it is a late-game mana sink that is hard to block.

Risks. With no spare mana it is a vanilla 2/2. Every activation costs development, and good blockers still get in its way.

In the draft. A two-drop for an aggressive red deck. Fine, never exciting: take it when you need curve.

Win rate of the card

Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.

Card in hand at some point in the game53.2 %(set average : 55.7 %)
Card in the opening hand52.6 %(set average : 54.5 %)
Card drawn during the game53.5 %(set average : 56.5 %)

Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : +0.3 win-rate points

How often it ends up in the deck once drafted by a strong player (not a win rate)51.0 %(set average : 61.0 %)

Its place in the set

  • Common: rank 47 of 81
  • Red: rank 28 of 40
  • Cost 2: rank 56 of 72
  • Average pick: 9.2 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)

Win rate by colour pair

Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.

40,716 games55.4 %(all pairs : 53.8 %)
6,563 games51.4 %(all pairs : 53.8 %)
3,617 games51.3 %(all pairs : 53.8 %)
3,130 games49.5 %(all pairs : 53.8 %)
2,842 games51.7 %(all pairs : 53.8 %)
1,398 games47.8 %(all pairs : 53.8 %)
891 games52.4 %(all pairs : 53.8 %)
636 games45.6 %(all pairs : 53.8 %)

Win rate: strong players and all players

Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.

Strong players (diamond and mythic ranks), card in hand53.0 %· 7,729 games
All players, card in hand53.9 %· 32,019 games

Win rate on the play and on the draw

Games on the play (the deck holds the card)55.3 %(set average : 57.0 %)
Games on the draw, so drawing from the first turn (the deck holds the card)52.3 %(set average : 52.9 %)

Win rate by number of copies in the deck

  • 1 copy53.9 % · 42,276 games
  • 2 copies53.7 % · 15,311 games
  • 3 copies53.5 % · 3,168 games
  • 4 copies or more47.3 % · 313 games

Win rate since the set came out (card in hand)

  • First two weeks54.0 % · 21,572 games
  • Next two weeks54.1 % · 7,567 games
  • After that52.8 % · 2,880 games

Win rate alongside other cards

Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.

Cards it wins more with

  • Soul Immolation5,029 games · 58.5 % (instead of 56.0% expected)
  • Vibrance3,824 games · 58.0 % (instead of 55.4% expected)
  • Lavaleaper791 games · 49.2 % (instead of 46.9% expected)

Cards it wins less with

Where it is played

R/U · 75 %R/W · 40 %

Played in 12% of the decks of the set

Other cards of the same cost and colours

  • Ashling, Rekindled // Ashling, Rimebound

    27. Ashling, Rekindled // Ashling, Rimebound

    7.4
  • Boggart Cursecrafter

    40. Boggart Cursecrafter

    7.0
  • Explosive Prodigy

    52. Explosive Prodigy

    6.8
  • Flamebraider

    75. Flamebraider

    6.4

Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.