Lavaleaper
Rare · Creature — Elemental
5.0PlayableRank 176 of 264
48.6%Rank 259 of 264 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 55.7%
How are these measures computed?
Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.
Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).
It wins less than its rating suggests.
Why this gap?
The pick rating is a prior: it is for choosing a card before there are results. The observed strength comes from real games, and the win rate of a card is stable from one week to the next. The gap often comes from a card that is easy to replace at the pick but very efficient once played, from a good archetype that carries it, or from a flaw of our rating: in a set that already has many games, the results are more reliable than the rating.
A solid playable that rarely gets cut (5.0/10).
Why. A 4/4 for four mana, but its text benefits both players: all creatures have haste, and every basic land tapped for mana gives an extra mana. It is a very specific deck tool.
Risks. It helps your opponent too, who gains mana and haste. That is a real risk, and only an aggressive plan or a ramp-heavy deck justifies it.
In the draft. Pass it in most decks. The 4/4 body alone is not worth the gamble; play it only if you built around it.
Win rate of the card
Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.
Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : -0.1 win-rate points
Its place in the set
- Rare: rank 57 of 61
- Red: rank 25 of 40
- Cost 4: rank 28 of 47
- Average pick: 8.3 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)
Win rate by colour pair
Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.
Win rate: strong players and all players
Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.
Win rate on the play and on the draw
Win rate by number of copies in the deck
- 1 copy48.0 % · 1,666 games
- 2 copies49.6 % · 113 games
Win rate alongside other cards
Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.
Cards it wins more with
- Prismabasher160 games · 53.8 % (instead of 47.6% expected)
- Chaos Spewer203 games · 50.2 % (instead of 44.4% expected)
- Liminal Hold152 games · 52.6 % (instead of 48.3% expected)
Cards it wins less with
- Thirst for Identity164 games · 39.0 % (instead of 46.4% expected)
- Scuzzback Scrounger181 games · 41.4 % (instead of 47.0% expected)
- Wild Unraveling167 games · 41.9 % (instead of 45.8% expected)
Other cards of the same cost and colours
49. Sanar, Innovative First-Year
7.0
60. Bre of Clan Stoutarm
6.6
97. Champion of the Path
6.0
100. Goliath Daydreamer
6.0
Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.