Reluctant Dounguard
Common · Creature — Kithkin Soldier
4.0WeakRank 230 of 264
51.6%Rank 227 of 264 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 55.7%
How are these measures computed?
Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.
Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).
A good playable, but is sometimes cut (4.0/10).
Why. A 4/4 for three that enters with two -1/-1 counters, so a 2/2. Each other creature you control that enters removes a counter, quickly turning it into a 4/4.
Risks. Alone it stays a 2/2. It needs more creatures to follow, and it is fragile while it carries its counters.
In the draft. A good three-drop in a white deck with plenty of creatures. Mid-pack.
Win rate of the card
Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.
Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : -1.5 win-rate points
Its place in the set
- Common: rank 61 of 81
- White: rank 38 of 41
- Cost 3: rank 58 of 66
- Average pick: 9.1 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)
Win rate by colour pair
Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.
Win rate: strong players and all players
Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.
Win rate on the play and on the draw
Win rate by number of copies in the deck
- 1 copy53.4 % · 27,786 games
- 2 copies52.9 % · 8,228 games
- 3 copies50.6 % · 1,196 games
- 4 copies or more49.5 % · 109 games
Win rate since the set came out (card in hand)
- First two weeks52.4 % · 12,510 games
- Next two weeks51.1 % · 3,512 games
- After that54.3 % · 1,297 games
Win rate alongside other cards
Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.
Cards it wins more with
- Bloom Tender646 games · 57.7 % (instead of 51.0% expected)
- Celestial Reunion614 games · 56.5 % (instead of 52.0% expected)
- Morningtide's Light1,298 games · 54.4 % (instead of 52.1% expected)
- Spry and Mighty2,130 games · 53.8 % (instead of 51.5% expected)
Cards it wins less with
- Tributary Vaulter2,583 games · 50.2 % (instead of 54.3% expected)
- Blossombind2,179 games · 49.7 % (instead of 53.3% expected)
- Silvergill Peddler1,925 games · 50.2 % (instead of 53.8% expected)
Where it is played
G/W · 64 %B/W · 30 %
Played in 7.1% of the decks of the set
Other cards of the same cost and colours
13. Brigid's Command
8.3
15. Ajani, Outland Chaperone
8.1
34. Eclipsed Merrow
7.3
41. Brigid, Clachan's Heart // Brigid, Doun's Mind
7.0
Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.