Goblin Negotiation
Uncommon · Sorcery
5.2PlayableRank 166 of 271
51.7%Rank 220 of 274 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 55.7%
How are these measures computed?
Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.
Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).
A solid playable that rarely gets cut (5.2/10).
Why. A flexible removal spell: X damage to a creature, with a 1/1 Goblin token for each point of excess damage. Against a small creature, you kill it and keep an army.
Risks. It costs two red mana on top of X, so it is pricey for killing a big creature. It does nothing against an opponent with no creatures.
In the draft. A mid-pack pick for red. Useful as late-game removal when you have plenty of mana.
Win rate of the card
Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.
Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : -0.4 win-rate points
Its place in the set
- Uncommon: rank 58 of 101
- Red: rank 24 of 43
- Cost 2: rank 32 of 57
- Average pick: 9.2 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)
Win rate by colour pair
Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.
Win rate: strong players and all players
Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.
Win rate on the play and on the draw
Win rate by number of copies in the deck
- 1 copy52.4 % · 17,206 games
- 2 copies49.7 % · 1,840 games
- 3 copies54.3 % · 184 games
Win rate since the set came out (card in hand)
- First two weeks52.0 % · 5,996 games
- Next two weeks51.9 % · 1,870 games
- After that51.7 % · 288 games
Win rate alongside other cards
Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.
Cards it wins more with
- Banner of Kinship371 games · 53.1 % (instead of 49.3% expected)
- Resolute Reinforcements1,101 games · 55.5 % (instead of 52.3% expected)
- Reassembling Skeleton1,145 games · 53.6 % (instead of 50.6% expected)
Cards it wins less with
- Icewind Elemental1,117 games · 47.6 % (instead of 50.9% expected)
- Beast-Kin Ranger1,634 games · 49.3 % (instead of 51.8% expected)
- Squad Rallier1,128 games · 51.0 % (instead of 53.1% expected)
Other cards of the same cost and colours
12. Searslicer Goblin
8.4
28. Abrade
7.4
55. Ruby, Daring Tracker
6.8
63. Heartfire Immolator
6.6
Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.