Bilbo's Gambit
Rare · Instant
4.4WeakRank 148 of 188
47.6%Rank 176 of 179 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 56.5%
How are these measures computed?
Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.
Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).
A good playable, but is sometimes cut (4.4/10).
Why. For two mana, return an opposing spell to its owner's hand: the opponent loses the mana spent on that spell. If you promise the gift, they get a Treasure but no one can cast spells for the rest of the turn. That prevents any response.
Risks. It gains no card and lets the opponent recast the spell next turn. The Treasure you give accelerates their mana, and you have to stay open with two mana, one of them white, at the right moment.
In the draft. A niche tempo tool, to avoid early in the pack. Draft players generally prefer cards that affect the board; leave it in the sideboard unless your deck is very reactive.
Win rate of the card
Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.
Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : -1.6 win-rate points
Its place in the set
- Rare: rank 45 of 53
- White: rank 22 of 28
- Cost 2: rank 47 of 55
- Average pick: 8.0 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)
Win rate by colour pair
Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.
Win rate on the play and on the draw
Win rate alongside other cards
Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.
Cards it wins more with
- Dwarven Mattock464 games · 55.4 % (instead of 49.9% expected)
- Roads Go Ever, Ever On287 games · 55.4 % (instead of 49.9% expected)
- Belladonna Took195 games · 52.3 % (instead of 46.9% expected)
- Gandalf, Spark Starter189 games · 57.1 % (instead of 51.8% expected)
Cards it wins less with
- Bard's Company213 games · 45.5 % (instead of 52.1% expected)
- Bothersome Noisemaker169 games · 48.5 % (instead of 52.5% expected)
- Gundabad Opportunist196 games · 47.4 % (instead of 50.9% expected)
Other cards of the same cost and colours
6. Dáin's Company
8.7
7. Kíli the Resourceful
8.6
13. The Eagles Are Coming!
7.9
17. Stone by Sunlight
7.6
Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.