Down, Down to Goblin-town
Uncommon · Enchantment — Saga
7.2Very goodRank 27 of 188
59.2%Rank 28 of 179 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 56.5%
How are these measures computed?
Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.
Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).
A solid uncommon of the format (7.2/10).
Why. A black Saga that takes the best nonland card from the opponent's hand, then creates a 0/0 Goblin Army with a +1/+1 counter (or grows the one you have), then drains one life twice. It is a one-for-one card trade with a small body as a bonus.
Risks. The effect is slow: the discard happens on turn 3, but the rest is spread over the next three turns. The 1/1 Army is a modest body, and if the opponent's hand is mostly lands, the first chapter disappoints.
In the draft. A solid filler, to play in black decks that like to accumulate value. Slightly better if you have other Army sources to grow the Goblin.
Win rate of the card
Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.
Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : +2.1 win-rate points
Its place in the set
- Uncommon: rank 7 of 55
- Black: rank 5 of 27
- Cost 3: rank 6 of 46
- Average pick: 3.5 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)
Win rate by colour pair
Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.
Win rate: strong players and all players
Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.
Win rate on the play and on the draw
Win rate by number of copies in the deck
- 1 copy57.8 % · 48,877 games
- 2 copies59.2 % · 10,232 games
- 3 copies62.0 % · 1,163 games
- 4 copies or more68.9 % · 103 games
Win rate since the set came out (card in hand)
- First two weeks59.4 % · 19,554 games
- Next two weeks59.6 % · 4,987 games
- After that58.5 % · 2,902 games
Win rate alongside other cards
Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.
Cards it wins more with
- Key to the Side-Door499 games · 54.9 % (instead of 53.3% expected)
- Mirkwood Pathmaker7,589 games · 60.5 % (instead of 58.9% expected)
- Part in Friendship1,393 games · 55.2 % (instead of 53.6% expected)
- Troll Negotiations6,441 games · 58.5 % (instead of 57.0% expected)
Cards it wins less with
- Lakeshore Apothecary3,647 games · 53.2 % (instead of 57.3% expected)
- Bilbo, Luckwearer // Burglar's Plot2,946 games · 54.4 % (instead of 58.5% expected)
- Long Lake Nuisance4,034 games · 53.5 % (instead of 57.5% expected)
Where it is played
B/R · 47 %B/G · 42 %
Played in 18% of the decks of the set
Other cards of the same cost and colours
24. Rhovanion Rampager
7.3
32. Chief Warg's Company
7.0
36. The Master of Lake-town
6.9
37. Crude Bent Blade
6.8
Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.