Thorin's Last Stand

Common · Instant

Pick rating

2.0WeakRank 182 of 188

Observed strength

48.8%Rank 172 of 179 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 56.5%

How are these measures computed?

Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.

Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).

Not good filler and often gets cut (2.0/10).

Why. A modal instant for four mana, two of them white. One mode gives +2/+1 to all your creatures until end of turn, which can turn a combat or finish a game; the other destroys an artifact or enchantment and gains you 2 life.

Risks. The first mode is worth nothing without several creatures, and the second depends on the opposing target. It doesn't replace real removal and can rot in hand.

In the draft. A filler card in a white deck with lots of small creatures. Don't take it over your creatures; it goes up slightly if you see opposing artifacts.

Win rate of the card

Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.

Card in hand at some point in the game48.8 %(set average : 56.5 %)
Card in the opening hand45.2 %(set average : 55.7 %)
Card drawn during the game50.8 %(set average : 57.0 %)

Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : -1.8 win-rate points

How often it ends up in the deck once drafted by a strong player (not a win rate)6.0 %(set average : 61.0 %)

Its place in the set

  • Common: rank 60 of 65
  • White: rank 26 of 28
  • Cost 4: rank 31 of 31
  • Average pick: 11.6 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)

Win rate by colour pair

Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.

5,362 games50.9 %(all pairs : 50.5 %)
3,216 games50.5 %(all pairs : 50.5 %)
257 games49.8 %(all pairs : 50.5 %)

Win rate: strong players and all players

Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.

Strong players (diamond and mythic ranks), card in hand48.8 %· 377 games
All players, card in hand49.2 %· 4,079 games

Win rate on the play and on the draw

Games on the play (the deck holds the card)53.9 %(set average : 60.8 %)
Games on the draw, so drawing from the first turn (the deck holds the card)47.0 %(set average : 51.5 %)

Win rate by number of copies in the deck

  • 1 copy50.7 % · 8,534 games
  • 2 copies47.3 % · 619 games

Win rate since the set came out (card in hand)

  • First two weeks49.1 % · 3,240 games
  • Next two weeks46.7 % · 501 games
  • After that53.6 % · 338 games

Win rate alongside other cards

Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.

Cards it wins more with

Cards it wins less with

Other cards of the same cost and colours

  • An Unexpected Party // At the Door

    10. An Unexpected Party // At the Door

    8.2
  • Fíli the Pathfinder

    12. Fíli the Pathfinder

    8.0
  • Celebrate the Mountain-king

    21. Celebrate the Mountain-king

    7.4
  • Settle the Wreckage

    29. Settle the Wreckage

    7.0

Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.