An Unexpected Party // At the Door
Rare · Enchantment // Sorcery — Adventure
8.2Very goodRank 10 of 188
65.3%Rank 2 of 179 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 56.5%
How are these measures computed?
Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.
Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).
One of the 10 best cards of the set (8.2/10).
Why. Two cards in one. At the Door, a sorcery costing X plus three mana including one white, creates X 2/2 red Dwarf tokens, then the enchantment stays castable from exile. An Unexpected Party, at four mana including two white, gives +2/+2 to all your creatures of the chosen type as it enters.
Risks. The enchantment is only strong if a large part of your army shares a type: otherwise its bonus hits few creatures. The Dwarf tokens are expensive for what they give.
In the draft. A good pick in white decks with a tribal theme (Dwarves, Humans). On its own it stays decent as a late-game token maker.
Win rate of the card
Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.
Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : +11.9 win-rate points
Its place in the set
- Rare: rank 3 of 53
- White: rank 3 of 28
- Cost 4: rank 3 of 31
- Average pick: 1.7 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)
Win rate by colour pair
Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.
splash
splash
splash
Win rate: strong players and all players
Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.
Win rate on the play and on the draw
Win rate by number of copies in the deck
- 1 copy59.3 % · 21,644 games
- 2 copies63.3 % · 1,172 games
Win rate since the set came out (card in hand)
- First two weeks65.8 % · 7,493 games
- Next two weeks64.5 % · 2,047 games
- After that69.1 % · 1,230 games
Win rate alongside other cards
Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.
Cards it wins more with
- Riddles in the Dark328 games · 61.0 % (instead of 53.3% expected)
- Sound the Trumpets1,457 games · 61.2 % (instead of 57.3% expected)
- The Arkenstone // Seek the Heart964 games · 64.5 % (instead of 61.2% expected)
- Bard, King of Dale555 games · 57.3 % (instead of 54.1% expected)
Cards it wins less with
- Gollum, Silent Slinker // Meager Meal2,023 games · 57.0 % (instead of 61.0% expected)
- Goblin-town1,511 games · 56.8 % (instead of 60.2% expected)
- Bilbo's Deadly Slice1,629 games · 57.0 % (instead of 60.3% expected)
Other cards of the same cost and colours
12. Fíli the Pathfinder
8.0
21. Celebrate the Mountain-king
7.4
29. Settle the Wreckage
7.0
30. Bard's Company
7.0
Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.