Arna Kennerüd, Skycaptain
Mythic · Legendary Creature — Human Knight
6.6GoodRank 68 of 302
55.4%Rank 145 of 298 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 56.2%
How are these measures computed?
Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.
Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).
It wins less than its rating suggests.
Why this gap?
The pick rating is a prior: it is for choosing a card before there are results. The observed strength comes from real games, and the win rate of a card is stable from one week to the next. The gap often comes from a card that is easy to replace at the pick but very efficient once played, from a good archetype that carries it, or from a flaw of our rating: in a set that already has many games, the results are more reliable than the rating.
A very good mythic of the format (6.6/10).
Why. A 4/4 with flying and lifelink plus ward (discard a card): hard to kill, hard to face. When a modified creature attacks, it doubles its counters and copies its nontoken Equipment and Auras.
Risks. Three exact colours, white, blue and black: hard to cast without perfect mana. Without modified creatures, its last ability is inactive.
In the draft. Only in a three-colour deck that is already settled: do not force these colours for it.
Win rate of the card
Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.
Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : +5.3 win-rate points
Its place in the set
- Mythic: rank 12 of 24
- Multicolour: rank 10 of 39
- Cost 5: rank 5 of 17
- Average pick: 3.4 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)
Win rate by colour pair
Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.
splash
splash
splash
splash
splash
splash
splash
Win rate: strong players and all players
Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.
Win rate on the play and on the draw
Win rate by number of copies in the deck
- 1 copy52.2 % · 9,725 games
- 2 copies56.1 % · 453 games
Win rate since the set came out (card in hand)
- First two weeks55.1 % · 2,470 games
- Next two weeks57.2 % · 1,352 games
- After that54.7 % · 497 games
Win rate alongside other cards
Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.
Cards it wins more with
- Abstruse Appropriation1,269 games · 55.4 % (instead of 50.4% expected)
- Quest for the Necropolis655 games · 52.4 % (instead of 47.4% expected)
- Wrath of the Skies786 games · 55.6 % (instead of 51.5% expected)
- Glasswing Grace // Age-Graced Chapel2,704 games · 55.8 % (instead of 51.9% expected)
Cards it wins less with
- Legion Leadership // Legion Stronghold560 games · 48.9 % (instead of 53.8% expected)
- Rush of Inspiration // Crackling Falls548 games · 47.6 % (instead of 51.9% expected)
- Sheltering Landscape651 games · 49.3 % (instead of 53.4% expected)
Other cards of the same cost and colours
83. Ajani Fells the Godsire
6.4
106. Voltstorm Angel
6.2
117. Shilgengar, Sire of Famine
6.0
139. Wurmcoil Larva
5.8
Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.