Evolution Witness
Common · Creature — Elf Shaman Mutant
5.0PlayableRank 197 of 302
54.3%Rank 182 of 298 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 56.2%
How are these measures computed?
Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.
Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).
A solid playable that rarely gets cut (5.0/10).
Why. A 2/1 for three that can become a 4/3 for two more mana (Adapt 2). Whenever it gets +1/+1 counters it returns a permanent card from your graveyard to your hand: a value card that does two things.
Risks. The 2/1 is fragile before Adapt, and Adapt only works if it has no +1/+1 counters. It needs a permanent card in the graveyard to be useful.
In the draft. A good green common, red-green especially. Take it mid-pack.
Win rate of the card
Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.
Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : -0.7 win-rate points
Its place in the set
- Common: rank 55 of 80
- Green: rank 19 of 32
- Cost 3: rank 45 of 75
- Average pick: 6.1 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)
Win rate by colour pair
Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.
Win rate: strong players and all players
Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.
Win rate on the play and on the draw
Win rate by number of copies in the deck
- 1 copy54.9 % · 114,674 games
- 2 copies54.3 % · 29,106 games
- 3 copies53.6 % · 3,744 games
- 4 copies or more52.4 % · 361 games
Win rate since the set came out (card in hand)
- First two weeks54.3 % · 39,452 games
- Next two weeks53.5 % · 19,343 games
- After that55.0 % · 7,293 games
Win rate alongside other cards
Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.
Cards it wins more with
- Strix Serenade352 games · 53.7 % (instead of 47.0% expected)
- Flare of Duplication292 games · 53.8 % (instead of 49.1% expected)
- Meteoric Mace1,640 games · 55.5 % (instead of 51.1% expected)
- Rosheen, Roaring Prophet1,021 games · 56.3 % (instead of 52.7% expected)
Cards it wins less with
- Ral, Monsoon Mage // Ral, Leyline Prodigy356 games · 45.5 % (instead of 50.9% expected)
- Archway of Innovation208 games · 41.8 % (instead of 46.2% expected)
Where it is played
B/G · 62 %G/R · 52 %
Played in 19% of the decks of the set
Other cards of the same cost and colours
13. Nadu, Winged Wisdom
8.4
30. Signature Slam
7.5
31. Six
7.4
92. Bridgeworks Battle // Tanglespan Bridgeworks
6.4
Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.