Expressive Firedancer
Common · Creature — Human Sorcerer
5.2PlayableRank 158 of 266
55.3%Rank 176 of 319 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 56.3%
How are these measures computed?
Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.
Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).
A solid playable that rarely gets cut (5.2/10).
Why. A two-mana red 2/2 whose Opus gives it +1/+1 for each instant or sorcery cast, and double strike if five or more mana was spent. With spells it attacks as a threat bigger than expected.
Risks. Without instants and sorceries it is a plain 2/2. The bonuses last only until end of turn and it stays fragile in combat.
In the draft. A good two-drop for a red deck with many spells, in red-white or blue-red. Take it at a mid pick.
Win rate of the card
Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.
Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : +1.0 win-rate points
Its place in the set
- Common: rank 35 of 86
- Red: rank 19 of 32
- Cost 2: rank 43 of 69
- Average pick: 8.4 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)
Win rate by colour pair
Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.
Win rate: strong players and all players
Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.
Win rate on the play and on the draw
Win rate by number of copies in the deck
- 1 copy54.9 % · 53,936 games
- 2 copies54.9 % · 17,211 games
- 3 copies56.2 % · 3,975 games
- 4 copies or more57.7 % · 1,033 games
Win rate since the set came out (card in hand)
- First two weeks56.2 % · 21,809 games
- Next two weeks55.5 % · 11,507 games
- After that54.8 % · 7,179 games
Win rate alongside other cards
Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.
Cards it wins more with
- Choreographed Sparks783 games · 50.4 % (instead of 47.2% expected)
Cards it wins less with
- Mathemagics1,872 games · 52.2 % (instead of 56.8% expected)
Where it is played
R/U · 38 %R/W · 37 %
Played in 13% of the decks of the set
Other cards of the same cost and colours
9. Hardened Academic
8.6
21. Traumatic Critique
7.7
26. Molten-Core Maestro
7.5
34. Molten Note
7.3
Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.