Riverwalk Technique
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Riverwalk Technique

Common · Instant

Pick rating

5.2PlayableRank 166 of 271

Observed strength

56.4%Rank 96 of 274 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 56.0%

How are these measures computed?

Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.

Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).

It wins more than its rating suggests.

Why this gap?

The pick rating is a prior: it is for choosing a card before there are results. The observed strength comes from real games, and the win rate of a card is stable from one week to the next. The gap often comes from a card that is easy to replace at the pick but very efficient once played, from a good archetype that carries it, or from a flaw of our rating: in a set that already has many games, the results are more reliable than the rating.

A solid playable that rarely gets cut (5.2/10).

Why. A four-mana instant with two modes: a nonland permanent goes to the top or bottom of its owner's library, owner's choice, or a noncreature spell is countered. It answers nearly anything at instant speed.

Risks. The owner chooses, so a good card often goes back on top. Four mana is a lot for an effect that kills nothing.

In the draft. A flexible control card for a blue deck. Take it mid-pack, after your threats.

Win rate of the card

Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.

Card in hand at some point in the game56.4 %(set average : 56.0 %)
Card in the opening hand52.2 %(set average : 54.9 %)
Card drawn during the game58.8 %(set average : 56.7 %)

Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : +3.2 win-rate points

How often it ends up in the deck once drafted by a strong player (not a win rate)67.0 %(set average : 65.0 %)

Its place in the set

  • Common: rank 38 of 91
  • Blue: rank 18 of 34
  • Cost 4: rank 21 of 44
  • Average pick: 9.2 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)

Win rate by colour pair

Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.

35,442 games56.1 %(all pairs : 55.5 %)
23,927 games55.4 %(all pairs : 55.5 %)
23,864 games55.2 %(all pairs : 55.5 %)
10,519 games54.8 %(all pairs : 55.5 %)
6,160 games56.8 %(all pairs : 55.5 %)
5,408 games54.7 %(all pairs : 55.5 %)
5,249 games55.2 %(all pairs : 55.5 %)
4,352 games54.7 %(all pairs : 55.5 %)

Win rate: strong players and all players

Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.

Strong players (diamond and mythic ranks), card in hand56.8 %· 14,109 games
All players, card in hand57.0 %· 59,466 games

Win rate on the play and on the draw

Games on the play (the deck holds the card)57.9 %(set average : 58.0 %)
Games on the draw, so drawing from the first turn (the deck holds the card)53.0 %(set average : 52.1 %)

Win rate by number of copies in the deck

  • 1 copy55.6 % · 101,454 games
  • 2 copies54.9 % · 17,727 games
  • 3 copies54.9 % · 1,318 games
  • 4 copies or more52.5 % · 122 games

Win rate since the set came out (card in hand)

  • First two weeks57.1 % · 35,291 games
  • Next two weeks57.3 % · 17,814 games
  • After that56.1 % · 6,361 games

Win rate alongside other cards

Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.

Cards it wins more with

Cards it wins less with

  • Wild Ride1,637 games · 46.5 % (instead of 54.0% expected)
  • Fleeting Effigy3,280 games · 51.3 % (instead of 56.2% expected)

Where it is played

R/U · 59 %G/U · 41 %

Played in 22% of the decks of the set

Other cards of the same cost and colours

  • Eshki Dragonclaw

    30. Eshki Dragonclaw

    7.4
  • Fangkeeper's Familiar

    31. Fangkeeper's Familiar

    7.4
  • Naga Fleshcrafter

    51. Naga Fleshcrafter

    6.9
  • Kotis, the Fangkeeper

    172. Kotis, the Fangkeeper

    5.1

Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.