Temur Tawnyback
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Temur Tawnyback

Common · Creature — Beast

Pick rating

5.5PlayableRank 143 of 271

Observed strength

57.2%Rank 73 of 274 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 56.0%

How are these measures computed?

Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.

Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).

It wins more than its rating suggests.

Why this gap?

The pick rating is a prior: it is for choosing a card before there are results. The observed strength comes from real games, and the win rate of a card is stable from one week to the next. The gap often comes from a card that is easy to replace at the pick but very efficient once played, from a good archetype that carries it, or from a flaw of our rating: in a set that already has many games, the results are more reliable than the rating.

A solid playable that rarely gets cut (5.5/10).

Why. A 4/3 for three mana that loots on entry: you draw, then discard. For its price it is a solid body that improves your hand and matters on the board right away.

Risks. Its hybrid cost is only three mana with all three colours: in a two-colour deck it costs four, which is far less attractive. With no evasion, the 4/3 is exposed to a single removal spell.

In the draft. A good card for a green-blue-red deck, where it comes down on turn three. In a two-colour deck it is still playable at four mana, nothing more.

Win rate of the card

Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.

Card in hand at some point in the game57.2 %(set average : 56.0 %)
Card in the opening hand55.8 %(set average : 54.9 %)
Card drawn during the game58.0 %(set average : 56.7 %)

Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : +3.8 win-rate points

How often it ends up in the deck once drafted by a strong player (not a win rate)75.0 %(set average : 65.0 %)

Its place in the set

  • Common: rank 21 of 91
  • Multicolour: rank 44 of 66
  • Cost 6: rank 10 of 23
  • Average pick: 8.2 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)

Win rate by colour pair

Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.

59,986 games55.9 %(all pairs : 55.3 %)
9,657 games55.8 %(all pairs : 55.3 %)
7,142 games54.5 %(all pairs : 55.3 %)

splash

7,074 games54.4 %(all pairs : 55.3 %)
5,464 games53.5 %(all pairs : 55.3 %)
4,866 games54.8 %(all pairs : 55.3 %)

splash

3,960 games54.3 %(all pairs : 55.3 %)

splash

1,522 games53.5 %(all pairs : 55.3 %)

splash

Win rate: strong players and all players

Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.

Strong players (diamond and mythic ranks), card in hand56.2 %· 12,574 games
All players, card in hand57.1 %· 55,167 games

Win rate on the play and on the draw

Games on the play (the deck holds the card)58.3 %(set average : 58.0 %)
Games on the draw, so drawing from the first turn (the deck holds the card)52.4 %(set average : 52.1 %)

Win rate by number of copies in the deck

  • 1 copy54.8 % · 66,067 games
  • 2 copies56.3 % · 27,357 games
  • 3 copies56.7 % · 6,881 games
  • 4 copies or more55.1 % · 1,277 games

Win rate since the set came out (card in hand)

  • First two weeks57.1 % · 33,147 games
  • Next two weeks57.6 % · 16,026 games
  • After that56.4 % · 5,994 games

Win rate alongside other cards

Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.

Cards it wins more with

Cards it wins less with

Where it is played

G/U · 67 %R/U · 58 %

Played in 18% of the decks of the set

Other cards of the same cost and colours

  • Dragonback Assault

    1. Dragonback Assault

    9.4
  • Marang River Regent // Coil and Catch

    4. Marang River Regent // Coil and Catch

    9.0
  • Stormscale Scion

    49. Stormscale Scion

    7.0
  • Karakyk Guardian

    60. Karakyk Guardian

    6.6

Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.