How to Start a Riot
Common · Instant — Lesson
4.2WeakRank 234 of 281
52.2%Rank 232 of 279 by win rate, card in hand · set average: 56.2%
How are these measures computed?
Pick rating. The pick rating estimates what a card is worth when you choose it, before there are results: it combines several signals (expert evaluations, the choices of strong players, characteristics of the card such as its cost and rarity) and was tuned on the results of decks of strong players. It is for comparing cards while you draft.
Observed strength. The observed strength is the win rate of the games in which the card was in hand at some point (opening hand or drawn), from hundreds of thousands of real games of online draft players since the set came out. The rank compares the cards seen in at least 1,000 games. It does not correct for the strength of the deck the card is played in, and a result stays uncertain for a card that is played little (about 1.6 points of margin at 1,000 games).
A good playable, but is sometimes cut (4.2/10).
Why. A three-mana instant that gives one creature menace and +2/+0 to all creatures of a target player. On offence, a single big turn can finish the game or break through blockers. It is a Lesson.
Risks. It is a one-turn combat effect with no lasting value: if the opponent has removal in response, you lose the card. Without a wide board it does nothing.
In the draft. A decent trick for a white-red creature and Ally deck. Take it fairly late, after your creatures and removal.
Win rate of the card
Percentage of games won by the decks that play this card, depending on when it shows up, from the real games of the set.
Gap when it is drawn, against the games where it is not : -2.6 win-rate points
Its place in the set
- Common: rank 70 of 91
- Red: rank 31 of 40
- Cost 3: rank 51 of 64
- Average pick: 10.8 (1 = taken first from a pack; the lower the number, the earlier players choose it)
Win rate by colour pair
Percentage of games won by the decks of each pair that play the card, with the number of games. The pairs are the two main colors of the deck: when the card has a color outside the pair, the deck plays it as a splash (marked “splash”). A pair that has an archetype in this set leads to its guide.
Win rate: strong players and all players
Percentage of games won when the card is in hand; strong players are those ranked diamond or mythic online.
Win rate on the play and on the draw
Win rate by number of copies in the deck
- 1 copy54.5 % · 34,746 games
- 2 copies54.4 % · 4,987 games
- 3 copies54.4 % · 373 games
Win rate since the set came out (card in hand)
- First two weeks53.6 % · 9,210 games
- Next two weeks53.8 % · 4,791 games
- After that52.4 % · 3,644 games
Win rate alongside other cards
Win rate of the decks that play both cards, compared with the one you would expect from what each card gets alone. At least 150 games together.
Cards it wins more with
- Energybending1,387 games · 54.7 % (instead of 51.1% expected)
- Team Avatar3,482 games · 57.3 % (instead of 54.1% expected)
- Airbender Ascension1,193 games · 56.0 % (instead of 52.9% expected)
Cards it wins less with
- White Lotus Hideout1,147 games · 44.9 % (instead of 50.9% expected)
- Toph, Hardheaded Teacher1,512 games · 50.3 % (instead of 54.3% expected)
- Bitter Work1,037 games · 47.7 % (instead of 51.8% expected)
Where it is played
R/W · 39 %R/U · 36 %
Played in 7.3% of the decks of the set
Other cards of the same cost and colours
18. Fated Firepower
8.0
46. Dragonfly Swarm
7.0
48. Iroh, Tea Master
7.0
111. Twin Blades
6.0
Intrinsic ratings: they do not take into account the cards you have already picked. They matter most for the first pick of the first pack.